This could be the first step to an independent Scotland
IF the cause of independence is soon to prevail then its adherents will come to regard the month of May, 2018, as having been one of its high watermarks. In the coming weeks the contents of Andrew Wilson’s long-awaited Growth Commission, published yesterday, will be subject to intense scrutiny and an onslaught of foam-flecked invective from the massed ranks of the Unionist media. Much of this will have been pre-packaged and will feature the words “...but what about the £9bn fiscal deficit” this being the sacred incantation that eventually binds all pro-union supplicants in adoration. That even the most obsessive of these has been forced to admit that the legendary public spending deficit represents a mere snapshot of a situation using incomplete data and failing to acknowledge the different spending priorities of the government of a future independent Scotland is rarely allowed to spoil the narrative.
The flavour at least of Wilson’s meaty report is initially a pleasant one. Of course it is imbued, as you would expect, with a sense of optimism underpinned by sensible GDP projections and a workable transition from sterling to a standalone Scottish currency. There are reminders of the proven advantages that an independent Scotland will possess in its oil and gas resources and its limitless renewables potential. Sprinkled throughout are indications that Scotland is eager to open its arms and embrace Europe and the wider world. And this at a time when the rest of the UK seems intent on retreating to a point in the 19th century when ideas of empire and supremacy reigned; of gunboat diplomacy and Third World exploitation.
Wilson himself is an economic diplomat, moving easily in Unionist and establishment circles where his success as an economist in the commercial world is well-known. He is not a divisive figure, preferring the olive branch to the rapier when engaging with political opponents and is quick to respect their point of view. His report is pleasingly free from the grandiose and ill-measured claims of 2014’s flawed White Paper. It doesn’t claim to provide all the economic answers but rather suggests there is cause for cautious optimism.
In the same week Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England, stated his belief that a currency union between an independent Scotland and the rest of the UK could be economically possible. Mr Carney’s ancillary statement, curiously overlooked by the BBC, that Brexit has already cost each UK household £900 must have had Mr Wilson doing cartwheels as he prepared to launch his document. At this rate the Daily Mail, having already called for the abolition of the House of Lords will soon be calling for a similar fate to befall Mr Carney.
The current buoyancy of Scotland’s oil and gas sector has also made a mockery of Unionist predictions made in the course of the first independence campaign when they became the first group in any oil-producing country to express regret at having a quantum of the black stuff at all.
Other events in the last week or so have also bolstered the Yes movement. Not the least of these occurred at an event in London when the old Better Together band struck up once more. The sight of two of the big beasts of Scottish Labour sharing yet another platform with the scarecrow elements of the UK hard right, including Arlene Foster, DUP leader and chief hostage-taker of the current Tory administration, must have caused some in the party to go and take a lie down. To see Jim Murphy and Lord Darling rubbing shoulders with their old friends must have caused joy in the
SNP. It was like discovering that your main opponent’s activity in the transfer market prior to the new season has all taken place in the local scrapyard. Only the absence of Gordon Brown stopped this being a political version of Last of the Summer Wine.
Elsewhere the Scottish Labour Party, following some decent poll ratings, seem to have become light-headed and feverish at the novelty of it all. The MSP Jenny Marra insisted that life under Margaret Thatcher’s Tory administration was better than under the Holyrood SNP Government. Ms Marra is regarded as one of the brightest young stars in Labour’s Holyrood firmament; perhaps though someone senior like Lord Foulkes might tell her the story of Ravenscraig and the Miners’ Strike. Her bizarre intervention came after it was revealed that her leader Richard Leonard had used his vote to restore Blair-ite control of Labour’s ruling national executive in a rebuke to Jeremy Corbyn. It seems that, despite the vicissitudes of the last decade which have seen the party in Scotland fade into irrelevance, they have learned nothing.
With every passing week meanwhile the Scottish Tories look like they are all auditioning for Deliverance: The Musical. They are fast running out of religious, cultural and sexual minorities to disparage. At the next election they could simply cut to the chase with those Father Ted placards saying: “Down
With This Sort of Thing”.
Of course there is a world of a difference for the SNP between maintaining power at Holyrood and leading a broad-based movement that will deliver an independent Scotland. You won’t get attractive odds against them winning the next two Holyrood elections which means they are set fair for a quarter of a century of government. (Ironically, an independent Scotland would then offer Scottish Labour its best chance of power in the foreseeable future).
The trick, as ever, is for the SNP to convince more Labour voters that an independent Scotland offers them their most realistic chance of living in a country where social justice is at the heart of all government policy. To attack virulently one of only two newspapers which backs independence because you don’t like its picture choices is not the way to do this. And nor is risking the support of the biggest pro-independence faith group with tiresome attacks on Catholic schools and sporadic references to plastic Irishmen. Nicola Sturgeon must also address a growing and noticeable resentment from her Westminster MPS at the perception of micro-management at the top of the
SNP where influence is the preserve of an anointed kitchen cabinet within the real cabinet.
The stars are aligning nicely for the First Minister. She must choose her moment well and she could do with casting her net a little wider when seeking wise and independent counsel.
To see Jim Murphy and Lord Darling rubbing shoulders with their old Tory Better Together friends in London this week must have caused joy in the SNP