The UK needs to halt Brexit and mend its broken politics

THE UK is mired in a political and constitutional crisis. The seven Labour splitters are just one symptom of its imploding politics. And, whatever happens in the 38 days before Brexit day on March 29, this crisis will not end soon. Even if Brexit is halted, the UK’S deep disarray will continue.

Theresa May clings on to her Brexit chariot as it careers downhill, her party and Government powerless and fractured but somehow beaten to its inevitable split by Chuka Ummuna and his gang. EU leaders look on aghast as Mrs May continues her forlorn ring-round to get unlikely changes to the Northern Ireland backstop. Meanwhile Jeremy Corbyn resists either backing Mrs May’s deal or supporting the People’s Vote that Labour voters and members want. A left-wing, pro-eu platform could potentially garner big support in the polls, but Mr Corybn puts ideology ahead of political gains.

Damaging uncertainty reigns with all outcomes still possible on Brexit: a no-deal chaotic Brexit, Mrs May’s hard but unclear Brexit, a compromise May-corbyn Brexit (the same but with more honesty from both on the fact Mrs May’s deal anticipates a future permanent customs union), an extension to Article 50 or no Brexit at all.

There is a triple stand-off going on, amidst this dishonest political posturing, between the executive, the legislature and the people. Theresa May looks powerless but is still standing despite the Commons rejecting her deal by 230 votes, her then backing the Brady amendment against her own deal (by a majority of 16), then losing again last Thursday by 45 votes as the hard Brexiters feared she was backing the Commons rejection of no deal.

Yet Mrs May keeps running down the clock, desperately searching for a majority to carry the UK over the Brexit line. Mr Corbyn provides no serious opposition. Various smaller groupings in the Commons attempt to stop her while disagreeing on what should happen if they succeed. Government, opposition and the legislature as a whole are in the midst of a damaging breakdown.

Meanwhile, the much-hyped “people” are essentially ignored. The trope that the Commons is pro-remain, reluctant to implement the “will of the people”, is simply wrong. There is a Remain majority across the UK (and has been for a year), even in England. Yet the two main political parties keep supporting Brexit but with no consensus on what Brexit actually means.

This is a deep democratic and political failure. Brexit is damaging our economy, our devolution settlement, our security and has trashed the UK’S international reputation. And yet the views of the 54-56 per cent of the public who now support Remain are not represented at this critical moment by the UK’S two main parties. In Scotland – and in the Commons – the SNP and the Libdems support Remain and another vote but, so far, to little effect, even with the support of Labour and Tory rebels. And Mrs May’s government has been shockingly ready to let Northern Ireland’s lack of executive and assembly drag on.

Hoping to stop a no-deal Brexit, Yvette Cooper is putting forward a cross-party amendment next week to demand an Article 50 delay. She doesn’t say how long or what for – both things the EU will surely demand to know since they must agree any delay unanimously. But her amendment must lack clarity to have a chance of passing. Another amendment from Labour MPS Peter Kyle and Phil Wilson suggests the Commons back Mrs May’s deal on the condition of another referendum. It’s a rather tawdry politics that needs MPS to vote for something they oppose to get something, a People’s Vote, they could just vote directly for.

If Ms Cooper succeeds, Mrs May would have to pass her deal by mid-march or request an Article 50 extension rather than chasing a reckless last-minute Commons vote after the EU’S March 21 summit. Yet, whether in mid or end March, the EU27 could reject delay, or set unpalatable conditions. Or the EU might tell the UK to go away for a year and sort out its political breakdown (a tad optimistic time-wise – this could take decades).

Meanwhile, different groups that oppose Brexit still play into Mrs May’s timetable. The People’s Vote campaign has called for a big demonstration on March 23 which only makes sense if Brexit decisions are dangerously delayed until three days before Brexit.

Nicola Sturgeon too keeps delaying any decision on another independence referendum. She is waiting for a clear Brexit outcome, something our failing politics looks unlikely to deliver. A chaotic no-deal or a fudged delay will not clarify the options for future

Uk-scotland relations but either may sharply intensify the independence debate. The Scottish Government must either take a decision amidst uncertainty or embrace the politics of delay too.

Brexit shows clearly that the UK’S politics is broken and desperately needs modernising. A written constitution and proportional representation for Westminster voting would be a good start. The two big parties need to split (Labour’s has begun) and England has work to do on its own identity and regional politics.

And the UK should step back from Brexit so it can start to mend its politics without its economy, security and reputation going down the drain in parallel. Amidst such political and constitutional renewal, the UK could explore if there’s a new federal model that could work while offering Scotland the chance to decide if it wants to break away or be part of that renewal – and letting Northern Ireland, if it wants, hold a border poll.

Yet listing these basic modernisation steps underlines how unlikely they are and how far UK politics is from rescuing itself. Brexit is not the only cause of the UK’S political implosion but it’s the main immediate trigger. And careering towards a damaging, possibly no-deal Brexit will only intensify that political collapse.

Brexit might yet be halted, whether through revoking Article 50 or holding a successful People’s Vote. If so, the long, hard work of political renewal could possibly begin. But it won’t be quick or easy. Five weeks before the Brexit deadline, the UK is dependent on its powerless Government and a divided Westminster to rescue itself from this ever deeper crisis. It might happen. But don’t bet on the failing heart of a failing system riding to its own rescue.

There is a triple stand-off going on, amidst this dishonest political posturing, between the executive, the legislature and the people

* The author is director of the Scottish Centre on European Relations.