Constituency profile: Perth and North Perthshire
PETE Wishart, the SNP’S shadow leader of the House of Commons, is defending the third tightest margin in the UK after the 2017 election left him with a majority of just 21 votes over his Tory challenger in Perth and North Perthshire.
It was a panicky victory compared with two years previously when Mr Wishart, the longest serving SNP MP, held the seat comfortably, coming 9,641 votes ahead.
But the backlash to Nicola Sturgeon’s first stab at Indyref2 left the SNP sweating at the declaration, with the result on a knife-edge.
“I was practically chased away from doors two years ago by people totally opposed to a second independence referendum,” he admits. “They didn’t want to hear anything from us.”
However, he says the mood has warmed markedly as the impact of Brexit has sunk in, and says Tory efforts to re-run an Indyref2 scare campaign feel “tired” and low-energy. He also reckons he has the Prime Minister on his side.
He said: “There are two words that work like magic in every conversation – one is Boris and one is Johnson.
“There’s something about his Eton buffoonery that just grates with the Scottish people. They despise the lies and his behaviour.
“All I need to say is, ‘I hope I get your support. There’s 21 votes between me and Boris Johnson’s guy’ and the nature of the conversation changes.
“His character is the thing with the most impact.”
The Tory candidate is Angus Forbes, a local councillor, scout leader and Mountain Rescue volunteer. He knows Mr Wishart’s patter about Mr Johnson and says he has an antidote.
“I ask people what they think about Nicola Sturgeon and they say, ‘Oh, I absolutely detest her’. There are some people who don’t like Boris Johnson, but there are more who dislike Nicola Sturgeon – and they absolutely hate her.
“It’s a two-horse race here and it’s going to come down to who is more palatable.”
Cllr Forbes said he’s started picking up votes from traditional Labour, ex-military families who don’t trust Jeremy Corbyn and by extension Ms Sturgeon’s plan to put him into power.
Both the SNP and Tories say the result is too close to call, and there are fears of a low turnout. “I think this will come down to a few hundred votes,” said Cllr Forbes.
Much of the seat is relatively affluent: while incorporating some deprived areas of Perth this is balanced by well-off suburbs and large rural areas where the key issues include tourism, agriculture and fishing.
The Greens aren’t standing to avoid splitting the pro-independence vote, but the Brexit party will be represented by small business owner Stuart Powell, splitting the Leave vote.
Whether the Brexit party’s presence will impede Mr Forbes or Labour’s Angela Bretherton is unknown.
A Ukip candidate in 2015 barely managed to attract 1,000 votes, but in a seat where every vote may count, the support Mr Powell attracts could well be critical.
Ms Bretherton, a Unison organiser, will be attempting to widen the field beyond those two horses, but neither she nor Liberal Democrat candidate Peter Barrett have much hope of doing so.
In 2017, Mr Barrett was backed by five per cent and Labour’s David Roemmele by just over 10% of voters.