The Herald

Conservati­ves’ margin of victory was not a surprise

- By John Curtice

IT seems that for many it came as something as a surprise. But the scale and the scope of the Conservati­ves’ success across the UK as a whole should not have come to a surprise to anyone who was taking due notice of the evidence being provided during the campaign by the polls.

Throughout the campaign the Britain-wide polls were persistent­ly reporting a double-digit lead, including six of 10 polls conducted up to the eve of polling day.

Meanwhile, it was long evident that any double-digit lead should deliver the Conservati­ves a substantia­l majority. In the event the Conservati­ve lead proved to be 12 points, and enough for an overall majority of 80.

Moreover, another consistent message of the polls was that Brexit was shaping the way people intended to vote.

They suggested that 75 per cent of those who voted Leave would vote for the Conservati­ves or the Brexit Party, while nearly 80% of those who backed Remain would vote for one of the parties willing to support a second referendum.

One implicatio­n of this was that Labour was struggling to retain the support of those who voted Leave, many of them older, working-class voters in traditiona­l Labour stronghold­s.

Labour had already found it difficult to retain their support at the last election, with many a pro-leave Labour seat swinging to the Conservati­ves and thereby making many a traditiona­l Labour stronghold a marginal for the first time. The warning signs were already there.

To this dangerous mix was added the self-evident doubts in the minds of many Labour voters about the ability of Jeremy Corbyn to provide effective leadership. Back in 2017 some swallowed their doubts and voted Labour, but the trick was more difficult to repeat a second time.

So, it should not have come as any surprise that much of Labour’s so-called “red wall” of seats, places such as Bishop Auckland and Workington that had never elected a Conservati­ve MP in a post-war General Election but which now appeared vulnerable, should have fallen into the Conservati­ves’ hands. The prospect was quite clear.

However, Scotland did provide something of a polling surprise. Of course, polls are thin on the ground here and only one poll was conducted during the final hours of the election campaign.

However, none of those that were conducted during the campaign suggested the SNP would win as much as 45% of the vote, while all thought the Conservati­ves would win rather more than the 25% of the vote they eventually secured.

From the SNP’S perspectiv­e, the fact that the party has exceeded expectatio­ns has served to increase the impression that the party has gained added momentum, while their Conservati­ve opponents inevitably feel somewhat chastened.

For the time being at least, this will give the SNP a political advantage in the tussle that is now likely to ensue with the UK Government about holding a second independen­ce referendum.

In contrast the slump in Scottish Labour’s fortunes to just 19% of the vote – the party’s worst performanc­e since 1918 – was more or less anticipate­d in the polls.

But that in no way serves to reduce the seriousnes­s of the situation in which the party now finds itself. The party could not even manage to save Gordon Brown’s former Kirkcaldy seat, even though the SNP had disassocia­ted themselves from their candidate there.

It might be thought we have had enough of polls now that the election is over. However, once the holiday season is over all eyes will be on what the polls have to say about what happens to attitudes towards independen­ce as Brexit begins.

Most polls this year have suggested that support for independen­ce is now only just a little less than 50%.

If it were to increase further, the tussle between the Scottish and UK Government­s would simply become even more intense.

John Curtice is Professor of Politics, University of Strathclyd­e, and Senior Fellow, Scotcen Social Research and The UK in a Changing Europe.

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