MP Macaskill says chance of 2020 Indyref2 likely ‘nil and no bad thing’
THE chance of Nicola Sturgeon getting a second independence referendum this year is likely to be “nil”, one of her MPS has said.
Kenny Macaskill also said the absence of Indyref2 was “no bad thing”, as the SNP had yet to resolve some “critical issues” from its defeat in 2014, and get its campaign operation up to speed.
The former justice secretary, who became the MP for East Lothian last month, said “unity on the Left” should be the immediate concern in the wake of Boris Johnson’s General Election win.
After the election, the First Minister demanded Mr Johnson change the law, preferably permanently, to give Holyrood the power to hold its own referendum or referendums on leaving the UK.
She has repeatedly said she has a mandate to hold it in late 2020.
However, Mr Johnson appears certain to refuse, citing his own mandate to avoid a referendum and keep the Union together.
Writing in the forthcoming issue of the Scottish Left Review, Mr Macaskill bursts Ms Sturgeon’s bubble by saying Indyref2 is neither probable nor desirable any time soon.
He says: “The likelihood of a referendum in the short-term is slim. Indeed, more likely nil.
“That additional time is no bad thing given the failure to have resolved some critical issues from 2014 or to have restored the campaigning machine that was so effective back then.”
However he agrees with his leader that referendum powers and timing should rest with Holyrood, and the “irredentist refusal by the Tories is a democratic outrage”.
Former SNP deputy Jim Sillars also describes Ms Sturgeon’s Indyref2 demand as “play acting”.
KENNY Macaskill has urged the SNP to work rapidly with other parties to “build on the anger” felt in Scotland towards Boris Johnson’s new Tory government.
The former SNP Justice Secretary said his party should cooperate with Labour and “avoid triumphalism” over its defeat in order to confront an administration “the Scottish people loathe and fear”.
He said bringing Scottish elected politicians and parties together was now “essential”, perhaps in a new constitutional convention of the kind that gave rise to Holyrood in the 1990s.
He said the goal should be a united demand for Scottish independence, or at least unity on the right of the Scottish people to choose their own future.
“It can be the basis to show the world that it’s not one party, but the people who are demanding it,” he said.
Mr Macaskill also said there should be protest marches, and hinted at peaceful civil disobedience of the sort seen against
It’s time for unity. The political sectarianism that has blighted Scottish politics must end
the Poll Tax in the 1980s.
There could be “individual actions by groups and a variety of tactics”, he said.
Writing in the forthcoming issue of the Scottish Left Review, the East Lothian MP said: “We face an attack upon the social infrastructure of our country.
“The welfare state and even the NHS are in Johnson’s sights, whatever pledges he has made. Far from rolling back the gig economy, it’s likely to morph into something larger.
“Bringing Scottish elected politicians and parties together is essential. Whether that’s a constitutional convention as before, a convocation of elected parliamentarians from both chambers or a wider gathering can be discussed.
“Building on the anger that currently exists rather than allowing despondency to settle in is required.”
He said the new forum could compliment more direct forms of protest.
“Marches there are going to be and rightly so. The anger that exists needs led and channelled, not simply be allowed to dissipate. That is a key role for the left and goes far wider than simply elected representatives.
“Showing continued opposition will be essential to maintain morale at home and doing so collectively and harmoniously will be essential.
“As with previous campaigns such as the Poll Tax, it needn’t preclude individual actions by groups and a variety of tactics being used.
“But agreement around [the] central tenet of Scottish democracy is essential.
“That will also provide opportunities to show the level of opposition in Scotland to a global audience.
“So it’s time for unity. Structures need established and tactics discussed but the political sectarianism that has blighted Scottish politics must end. To paraphrase, now’s the time for all good people to come to the aid of the country.”
Scottish Labour leader Richard Leonard has also backed a new crossparty constitutional convention.
Mr Macaskill, who left the Scottish cabinet when Nicola Sturgeon became First Minister in 2014, also gave short shrift to her call for Indyref2 in late 2020.
“The likelihood of a referendum in the short-term is slim. Indeed, more likely nil,” he said.
In the same issue, former SNP deputy leader Jim Sillars was even more blunt.
“Everyone with any political nous knows that Nicola’s demand for indyref2 in 2020 is play acting to up the grudge feeling when Johnson says no.
“How the activist gallery to which she is playing don’t see they are being led up the garden path beats me.”
He also accused Ms Sturgeon of undermining her claim to have a mandate for Indyref2 by muddying her campaign messages in the election and shifting away from independence.
He said: “So another election goes by and the SNP sought ‘remainer’ Unionist votes, thus undermining the claim to have a mandate for indyref2.”
Tory MSP Maurice Golden said: “The arrival of a new year doesn’t seem to have eased the tensions at the top of the SNP.
“If anything the divisions are growing deeper as the party of government continues to tear itself apart, our schools, hospitals and infrastructure suffer.”
The SNP was asked for comment.