Starmer is clear favourite among Labour members to be next leader
THE moderate Remainer Sir Keir Starmer is the clear favourite to replace Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader, according to a poll of party members.
In a blow to the “continuity Corbyn” candidate Rebecca Long-bailey, a Yougov survey found the shadow Brexit secretary was the overwhelming choice of activists of all ages country-wide.
A former director of public prosecutions who became a London MP in 2015, Sir Keir led in an initial field of seven contenders, then improved his lead as the choice narrowed.
Asked to rank their preferences for leader, 31 per cent of members gave Sir Keir as their first choice, 20% chose Ms Long-bailey, 11% Jess Phillips, 7% Yvette Cooper, 7% Clive Lewis, 6% Emily Thornberry and 5% Lisa Nandy.
Based on Labour’s leadership process, the preferences suggested vote transfers would ultimately result in Sir Keir defeating Ms Long-bailey by 61% to 39%.
The shadow Brexit secretary was the most popular contender among members from all regions and all age groups.
Yougov, which has accurately predicted the result of all recent party leadership contests, surveyed 1,059 Labour members for the academic Party Members Project, which is funded by the Economic and Social Research Council.
Sir Keir downplayed the significance of the poll, telling Sky News: “There’s no contest yet. The NEC [national executive committee] will decide this on Monday.
“For me, the most important thing is that the Labour Party is rebuilt, we learn the lessons of the last General Election, reflect on them, and address them.
“But we need the Labour Party as a trusted force for good.”
Professor Tim Bale, of Queen Mary University of London, who jointly ran the poll with Sussex University, said the winner was unlikely to come from the left of the party.
He said: “This is not shaping up to be a 2015-style Labour leadership contest [when Mr Corbyn easily won in the first round of voting].
“Unless potential candidates drop out before the start of voting, it may take a few rounds to decide the winner this time around.
“It doesn’t look at the moment as if the winner will come from the left of the party. Right now, Keir Starmer looks to be heading for a fairly emphatic victory.”
However Sir Keir faces questions about whether someone so strongly associated with Remain can reconnect with pro-brexit former Labour voters.
His London constituency, Holborn and St Pancras, may also be seen as a handicap when Labour needs to rebuild its shattered “red wall” in the Midlands and North of England.
Ms Long-bailey represents Salford and Eccles in Greater Manchester.
Mr Corbyn announced he was standing down the day after Labour’s worst election since 1935 last month.
His close ally and shadow chancellor John Mcdonnell said he would not stand, but publicly endorsed Ms Longbailey, the shadow business secretary.
However she is less well-known than Sir Keir and has said little of note since the election. Sir Keir has yet to formally announce his candidacy, but is expected to do so in the coming weeks.
The only declared candidates are Ms Thornberry, the shadow foreign secretary, and Mr Lewis, the shadow minister for sustainable economics.
One reason Boris Johnson was so eager to have an election last year was the fear among Tories that Labour could ditch Mr Corbyn for a more electable leader, such as Sir Keir.
The only Labour MP in Scotland, Ian Murray, has indicated he will stand for the UK party’s deputy leadership.
It emerged yesterday that Dundee councillor Michael Marra, the brother of Labour MSP Jenny Marra, is considering a bid to become Scottish Labour deputy.
The role has been vacant since the defeat of Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath MP Lesley Laird in the election. The moderate Dumbarton MSP Jackie Baillie is also expected to run for the post.
Bookies William Hill said Sir Keir was now the “red hot favourite” to succeed Mr Corbyn, with odds of 4/9, compared to 7/2 for Ms Long-bailey.
The most important thing is that the Labour Party is rebuilt [and] we learn the lessons of the last General Election