UK should allow second independence referendum – after 2030
WE live in turbulent economic and political times. The UK is now out of the EU against the wishes of many people not least – but certainly not only – in Scotland.
From a political perspective both at the UK and Scottish level we have endured the inability of our leaders to focus on and improve real world issues such as schools, hospitals, and social care.
For the economy, the Brexit process has been an unwelcome experiment into the damaging effects on growth and employment of political paralysis and conflict.
We should not want to repeat this any time soon.
In Scotland, now unlike England, there is still significant constitutional debate.
A large portion of the electorate want some form of change but what they want varies and another large group want no change at all. Two things are missing.
First, any sort of consensus. Our politicians are shouting at each other, nobody is listening to other views or trying to reach a compromise which recognises the merits of different visions and creates a way forward which we could agree on.
Instead of trying to unite us our politicians continue to divide us. Second, a sensible respect for facts. There are some facts we know already. An independent Scotland would have to agree to join the Euro if it joined the EU. If an independent Scotland joined the EU there would be some form of border between England and Scotland. Scotland has a very large budget deficit – seven times that of the UK in proportionate terms and if it were to leave the UK that would cause extreme pain in terms of funding public services. These are facts but they are either waffled away as though they don’t matter or daubed with spurious solutions such as that our unleashed potential will enable us to grow our way out of trouble – much like Venezuela.
There is another group of facts, however, that we don’t know. What will the UK’S deal with the EU look like and will it work?
Will the UK be able to forge relationships with other nations which create faster growth and more prosperity or will those hopes be dashed? The truth is that the answers to these questions are simply not known.
More importantly, they will not be known for some time because they require not just the reaching of agreements but finding out if the deals done actually work.
Is it unreasonable to suggest that we should only be asked another important constitutional question if we have the facts on which to make an informed decision? At the moment we are miles from that – years and perhaps decades rather than months.
Scotland needs to be allowed to get on without the constitutional question dogging and dividing us for years. We need time to work out what the post-eu environment is like, we need time for politicians to propose solutions which may build consensus.
How about the following as a way forward. The UK Government makes it clear there will be no further independence referendum before 2030 but that after that date it will permit one, if requested to hold one by a resolution of the Scottish Parliament passed with a two-thirds majority. In addition, any further referendum should not be only an In/out choice but the UK Government, and any party with more than five MSPS in the Scottish Parliament, should be able to put their own proposal for constitutional change forward for us to select from. This would give us time to understand the context for possible change and whether there is real support for it, time for politicians to get on with their real work and an opportunity to choose what we want rather than what we are given.