Life outside the EU is now looking grim
REPORTED comments by Michel Barnier, the EU’S chief negotiator, that the UK cannot have the same trade deal with the EU as Canada is a stark reminder that throughout the tortuous Brexit process the EU has consistently held to its underlying principles, in particular the free movement of people and of goods. As a consequence it would appear that as part of the Withdrawal Agreement, we are to have some sort of trade border somewhere in the middle of the Irish Sea. The UK Government, though, remains in denial and continues to believe that in the forthcoming trade negotiations the EU will blink first. So we have a situation where the UK’S chief negotiator, David Frost, speaking this week in Brussels stubbornly clings to the view that a “Canadafree Trade Agreement-type relationship” is going to be possible (“Frost tells Brussels UK wants ‘relationship of equals’ in free trade agreement”, The Herald, February 18).
Since the 2016 referendum we have had various post- Brexit trade scenarios tossed around by the Government. starting with Liam Fox’s ludicrous assertion that “the free trade agreement that we will have to do with the European Union should be one of the easiest in human history”. There has been talk of a Norway-type deal, an Australian deal (which does not in fact exist), a World Trade Organisation deal and now a Canada deal. The brutal fact is that being outside the EU leaves the UK in a woefully weak negotiating position. The claim by Downing Street that the UK and the EU are in some way “sovereign equals” is clearly disingenuous. Perhaps all along the intention has been to reach a “No Deal” outcome casting the EU as the proverbial pantomime villain. What then though for the UK? What will be the consequences for our trading relationships with the rest of the world?
According to the Second Annual Report on the State of EU Trade published by the European Commission in 2018, “The EU now has the largest web of preferential trade agreements in place worldwide, around 70 in total spanning five continents. Trade with countries outside the EU provides jobs for 31 million Europeans…. Combined, these agreements accounted for €1179 billion of trade in 2017.”
Outside the EU, the largest trading bloc in the world, life will be rather lonely for an isolated UK. The Government will be faced with the enormous challenge of having to renegotiate perhaps all of the trade deals that we have heretofore benefited from as a consequence of our membership of the EU. Quite apart from the enormous time commitment to get to grips with this daunting task, it is highly unlikely that the UK can expect to be able to negotiate more favourable terms than those currently in operation for EU member states. All told a pretty grim prospect.
Eric Melvin, Edinburgh EH10.
WE are hearing a lot of manufacturers warning that the coronavirus outbreak will seriously impact in the ability to continue production due to the drying up of the just in time supply chain from China. Apple and a number of the car manufacturers are issuing warnings, although I’m sure it will spread to a large number of industries and markets.
The phrase “putting all your eggs in one basket” springs to mind. Unions and some politicians warned years ago that having China as the main manufacturing source was a mistake. Now, as with my previous metaphor, the chickens are coming home to roost. Steve Barnet, Gargunnock.