New data paints a clearer picture

THE new weekly death figures from the National Records of Scotland are more comprehensive than the daily totals we have been used to so far.

The daily tally shows how many people have died over the preceding 24 hours with a laboratory-confirmed case of coronavirus.

The NRS figures are based on registrations where Covid-19 was recorded as one of potentially many factors on the death certificate.

This includes suspected or probable Covid-19. This broader definition of deaths in which Covid-19 was implicated helps explain why the NRS figures are so much higher than previous ones.

As Nicola Sturgeon said, it also means the NRS figures are more accurate. Whereas the running daily total was 220 confirmed deaths in Scotland by April 5, the NRS figure is 354, more than 60 per cent higher.

However, the NRS figures are based on death registrations over seven days, rather than the deaths that actually occurred in that period. This is because there is a natural lag between a death and its registrations.

In Scotland, most deaths are registered within three days, but the legal limit is eight days. This means more Covid-19 linked deaths will have occurred than NRS data is yet showing.

So even though the NRS number dwarfs the daily running total, the true figure will be higher still because of the delay.

A planned move to seven-day registrations should help reduce delays.

The NRS figures provide more information than the stark daily figure, including deaths by sex, age and health board.

They can also reveal “co-morbidities”, other factors such as diabetes or COPD, helping experts understand which patients are most at risk.

The UK equivalent for the NRS figure is weekly data from the Office of National Statistics, which run Saturday to Friday, rather than Monday to Sunday in Scotland.