‘Total elimination’ of new virus infections near
SCOTLAND is nearing total elimination of new coronavirus infections, experts have said, but the First Minister warned it could be some time before moving to the final phase of lifting the lockdown.
The Independent Scientific Advisory
Group for Emergencies (SAGE) has reported the Scottish Government’s “focus on elimination” has contributed to the progress.
Data presented yesterday showed Scotland and Northern Ireland’s rate of new infections per million people was around one, whereas in England the rate is almost 10.
However, Nicola Sturgeon warned Scots they will be living with physical distancing rules for some time as she stressed a move to the final phase of easing lockdown will not take place after the usual three-week review.
She said the public should “prepare to be in phase three for a bit longer than three weeks”, with the move to the final phase dependent on Covid-19 no longer being “the big public health risk that it has been.”
Moving through phase one, two and three of the route map out of lockdown has taken place at pace with threeweek reviews. But the final step, which would include mass gatherings being allowed, could be some time down the line.
SCOTLAND is nearing total elimination of new coronavirus infections, experts have said.
The Independent SAGE (Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies) has reported the Scottish Government’s “focus on elimination” has contributed to the progress in stopping people becoming infected.
Data presented by the group during a virtual conference yesterday showed that Scotland and Northern Ireland’s rate of new coronavirus infections per million people was around one, whereas in England the rate is almost 10.
Steve Reicher, Professor of Social Psychology at the University of St Andrews, said the success was not just down to geography, but also the differing approaches between Holyrood and Westminster.
He said: “In England we’re seeing figures hovering just under 10 new cases per million per day, and in Scotland and Northern Ireland they are hovering just above one – it’s a tenfold difference. If you want to make it even more stark, over the last four days in England 371 people died. In Scotland, there were two.”
Mr Reicher said Scotland had some “natural advantages” such as being less densely populated, and measures such as restricting travel to island communities has helped stop infection spread.
“It’s more rural. It’s possible to cut off the islands and, indeed, closing off the ferries to the Western Isles meant nobody has died there. There are some natural advantages, if you like, but you can’t put it down just to that,” he said.
He added: “In Scotland we’ve seen such a clear strategy, clearly articulated. Elimination is the aim and all objectives are geared towards driving things as low as possible.
“In England, the UK Government hasn’t been clear about the strategy, we don’t see any strategy... talk about herd immunity by default, but nothing has been articulated at all.
“Instead, we see a series of ad-hoc openings, ad hoc relaxations before we have an adequate test and trace system. One of the clear differences between Scotland and England is the difference between an elimination strategy, and just drift.”
He praised Nicola Sturgeon’s “slow, cautious approach to reopening” and “clear public messaging” as opposed to Boris Johnson’s, which he said was going for “quick cheap headlines, such as ‘Independence Day and Super Saturday”.
Professor Christina Pagel, mathematician and Professor of operational research at University College London, said “new infections are now at a low level in the UK”.
She said: “We are kind of reaching levels that you’re seeing and France, Germany, Italy.
“They are close to elimination level in Scotland and Northern Ireland, which is really good news but England, is still nine times too high.
“And the reason this matters is because elimination is the quickest way to open up your economy, and avoid a new wave and lockdowns. The lower the number of infections are, the fewer restrictions you need on your economy, to start everything up again and it also makes test and trace easier with fewer new cases and fewer new contacts.”
Professor Gabriel Scally, President of Epidemiology & Public Health section at the Royal Society of Medicine said Westminster was at a “fork in the road” as it considers to move forward out of lockdown. He said: “We are at a fork in the road here, because in Scotland, in Northern Ireland and Wales to a lesser extent, there has been reasonably good control of the virus. Numbers are encouragingly low and heading in the right direction.
“England isn’t in that position and a tenfold difference in terms of new cases and a ten-fold difference between England and Scotland in deaths as well in recent times is very, very worrying.
“We note there is no strategy we can see for actually dealing with the virus. There is strategy about dealing with the economy, and relaxing restriction on the economy and getting back to work, etc. But we cannot see the strategy for the virus.
“Our assessment of the situation is that we should not be throwing away the big advantage we have of several
Elimination is the quickest way to open up your economy and avoid a new wave of lockdowns
parts of the country being very nearly at elimination stage.”
A spokesman for the Prime Minister would not comment specifically when asked if Boris Johnson thought he had not done as well as Nicola Sturgeon in tackling the pandemic, but said:
“If you look at the infection rate and the number of people sadly dying from the disease every day, it is declining.
“It has been regularly and consistently declining over the course of the past few months.
“We have eased lockdown gradually based on the latest scientific advice and that’s what we will continue to do.”
The Independent SAGE was set up in May by a former Government chief scientific adviser after concerns were raised about the transparency of the Government’s own SAGE group.
Sir David King asked other senior scientists to join the 12-strong group to look at how the UK could get out of the coronavirus crisis.
At the time it was formed, Sir David said he had created the group “in response to concerns over the lack of transparency” of SAGE and the fear of “dangerous” political interference in advice to the government.
A partial list of membership of the SAGE group had to be published after it emerged controversial political adviser Dominic Cummings had been present at some of the meetings, alongside his Vote Leave companion Ben Warner.
One SAGE attendee said they felt Mr Cummings’s had occasionally influenced what is intended to be impartial scientific discussion and advice.
Another attendee said they had been shocked when Mr Johnson’s closest adviser had started attending the sessions in February as they thought it was supposed to be providing pure scientific data without political spin or input.
Downing Street officials said at the time the two men had been at the meetings simply as observers and said it was “factually wrong and damaging to sensible public debate” to suggest the advice from SAGE was being influenced by Mr Cummings and Mr Warner’s presence.
A spokesman said it was “entirely right that No 10 advisers attend.”