Only a clear victory for Biden can end the threat from Trump
Democrats can’t afford to be complacent with a president prepared to go to any length to win, write David Rothkopf and Bernard L Schwartz
Imagine Donald Trump getting sworn in for a second term. The President’s inaugural address lays out a grand vision of change — remaking the American judiciary, rolling back more environmental and health regulations, rethinking America’s overseas alliances, pulling out of Nato, further co-operation with Russia.
Do you think this nightmare is far-fetched? It is not. It is closer than you might imagine. Indeed, if American voters and in particular supporters of the Biden-harris ticket and Democratic candidates for the Senate and House are lulled into complacency by comforting poll numbers, it is almost certain to be the future we face.
Overconfidence invites defeat. Even a narrow victory for Joe Biden will invite controversy, challenges and confusion.
Only a massive overall voter turnout and substantial margins for Democrats can end the threat that Trumpism poses to our way of life in America, to our economy, to the rule of law in our country and to the futures we bequeath to our children and grandchildren.
You may find comfort in the polls showing a solid current lead for the Biden-harris ticket. As of this writing, the Real Clear Politics average of major polls shows the national lead at just over 7 per cent. But know this, larger leads disappeared in 1948, in 1968, in 1976, in 1988, and in 2016.
And while Joe Biden shows solid leads in battleground states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, Ohio and North Carolina, in all of those states but one, Florida, in 2016, Hillary Clinton’s lead was even larger than Biden’s is today.
And Biden’s lead in Florida is just 1.4% greater than hers was, well within the margin of error. Further, in both 2004 and 2012, campaigns saw late swings of over 5%, again within the margin of error of the RCP average.
In other words, the Biden lead is very vulnerable — especially because in none of those previously cited elections, was there an incumbent who was so committed to cheating in order to win the election.
Trump has already shown that he would do anything to win including breaking the law. That is why he is trying to make it impossible for the postal service to do their job with the delivery of mail ballots.
He even admitted on television his intent to withhold funding from the post office to gain an electoral edge.
The Republican Convention saw repeated instances of egregious violations of the law which was created to keep incumbents from using the power of their offices to gain an edge in elections. The GOP has sought to suppress the vote in states across the country.
And of course, Trump has welcomed the aid of foreign governments on his behalf in the past and this year, unlike 2020, the Senate has helped clear a path to make such election interference even easier for our enemies by refusing to fund election security laws.
The President was even impeached for trying to gain an unfair election advantage — and he got away with it, which he has shown he sees as licence to try again.
Not only may cheating give Trump an unfair advantage, as 2016 showed, our electoral system gives red states an edge. Indeed, it has been estimated that a Democratic candidate could win the popular vote by 4% and still lose in the electoral college.
And, of course, none of this speaks to the ability of the GOP to challenge or invalidate results in the courts, something they are planning to do according to press reports. The unfounded attacks on the accuracy of mail balloting are clearly laying the groundwork for such efforts.
Finally, this campaign is unusual due to Covid-19. The Biden campaign has yet to be directly tested by the day-in day-out rigors of public appearances.
While much of this year’s campaigning may be virtual, the next two months will be different with both debates and the prospect of late campaign “surprises” and dirty tricks looming.
They must recognise the bitter truth that in our system a tie will effectively go to the incumbent. Indeed, for the reasons cited above, even a small margin of victory for Biden is likely to result in both destabilising challenges and, in the end, a Trump win.
Further, a narrow Biden victory is likely not to be enough to win back Democratic control of the Senate which will be essential if the damage done by Trumpism is to be undone.
Even with some encouraging signs in the air, the next two months will therefore require a kind of fervour, discipline and commitment that no election in memory has seen.
The consequences of failure are too grave and the opportunity presented by defeating Trumpism and setting America on a renewed course to growth are too great to relax until the work is fully done and the transformative victory this country needs is finally and irrevocably achieved.
Even a narrow victory for Joe Biden will invite controversy, challenges and confusion