Will pandemic spell the end of Boris’s reign?
Rumblings of mutiny in the Tory ranks are growing louder as Johnson fails to deliver, writes UK Political Editor Michael Settle
WEDNESDAY December 2 could be a defining moment in the premiership of Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson.
This is the day when the month-long lockdown in England ends and MPS will vote on what comes next.
The Prime Minister is hopeful the move will get the coronavirus rate below one, so that another stay-athome lockdown can be avoided and the tier system reintroduced with lesser restrictions. Happily, this would mean everyone south of the Border could enjoy as near-normal a Christmas as possible.
At present, the R-number is just above one, so chances are the lockdown will successfully reduce the infection rate to below one. But what happens if this does not happen and the monster virus does not play ball. What then?
This week, Mr Johnson cut a forlorn figure at the dispatch box as he expounded a policy that went deeply against his core libertarian values.
The lockdown sparked a Conservative rebellion with more than 30 Tories not agreeing to the new restrictions. One of them was the Tin Lady, Theresa May, who abstained after giving a less than glowing assessment of her chum’s handling of the crisis
She pointed out the startling claim that Covid-19 deaths could top 4,000 a day by next month was “wrong before it was even used”.
As Mrs May asked her question, she was royally snubbed by her successor, who scuttled out of the chamber before she had finished.
The Tory rebels’ main complaint was the restrictions were overbearing on people’s liberties.
Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 Committee of backbench Tories, denounced them as “a form of evil” while his deputy Sir Charles Walker said they were a move towards an “authoritarian coercive state”.
If the policy was bad for some, the Downing Street leak was farcical for many and illustrative of the dysfunction at the heart of Government.
Almost a year ago, Mr Johnson’s fortunes were on the up as, after replacing Mrs May as Tory leader and PM, he lanced the Brexit boil and won a General Election with a healthy 80-seat majority.
But just three months into his premiership the coronavirus pall fell across the globe and everything changed. The honeymoon period was replaced by a nightmare one; for everyone.
As Covid-19 battered Britain, the Conservative Government performed U-turn after U-turn. While its supporters highlighted the unprecedented nature of the crisis that would have challenged any administration, the cumulative effect of shifting policy this way and that was beginning to have a toll not just on the PM’S standing with the public but also with his party. One former Coservative minister observed: “Boris is in a bad place. He has a B-team in Cabinet, having given jobs to people who were supportive in the Brexit debate, and a woeful communications team. It’s a perfect storm.”
Another ex-minister noted: “It’s a very difficult situation but he has been found out. At the end of the day Churchill was a person of substance and of great experience. He is not Churchill. Lots of people grow into office. Theresa May, despite her problems, looked like a Prime Minister; he does not.”
Labour, now pulling ahead in the polls, is increasingly targeting Chancellor Rishi Sunak, seen by more and more Tories as their best hope of maintaining power once the main impact of the pandemic is over.
Keir Starmer, whose main role now is to look competent and prime ministerial, is clearly thinking, like some Conservatives, Mr Johnson’s days are numbered. True, the next General Election is not until spring 2024 but the, often ruthless, Tory party will have to make up its mind in the next year or so on whether to stick or twist with its current leader.
One senior Conservative noted: “Boris can soldier on. But there will be a point towards the end of next year when there might be a wind of change. The party might have to figure out how to move forward and allow him to depart gracefully.”
It was also claimed from within Tory circles that Mr Johnson was the biggest drawback to the party’s fortunes in Scotland – a sentiment highlighted by a recent poll – and that there will be a plea from Scottish Conservative HQ for Mr Johnson to stay away from next year’s Holyrood campaign. One former minister helpfully described the PM as a “monkey on Douglas Ross’s back”.
While Scottish Tory insiders are reasonably confident that the uptick in opinion polls for independence will fall back and that the fall-out to the coronavirus and the huge economic strain it has caused will deter Scots from not backing a second independence poll any time soon, they cannot be certain of the lingering effects of Covid-19 on the country.
A Conservative peer suggested smothering Scotland with “love and fairness”, making transparent that Scots are getting their fair share of the Treasury cake. But with 12 consecutive polls putting the pro-independence campaign ahead, will love and fairness now be enough?
This week, Mr Johnson cut a forlorn figure at the dispatch box as he expounded a policy that went deeply against his core libertarian values