Opinion Matrix: Polls and politicians
THERE was only one topic being debated by columnists in the newspapers – the US election – and how the pollsters got it so wrong.
The Daily Mail
Stephen Glover asked when he would ever learn.
“In common with pretty well every pundit on both sides of the Atlantic, I assumed Joe Biden would trounce Donald Trump,” he said. “The polls uniformly predicted a Biden landslide. On the eve of the election, a 10-point lead for the Democratic Party candidate was the consensus. Trump was supposedly heading for a wipe-out in Florida. Yet he won there.”
He said that if a fortune teller at a village fair predicted hopeless prophecies year after year, people would realise they were being taken for a ride.
“But we go on trusting in polls even though they have recently, repeatedly been so very wide of the mark,” he said. “They predicted a Trump defeat in the 2016 election. Wrong. They said Remain would win the 2016 referendum. Also wrong.”
He said pollsters and the mainstream media assumed “such a ghastly person” could not be re-elected as president. “So pollsters were not surprised when, time and again, their researches suggested that Trump was heading for annihilation,” he added.
“It was what they expected. How could the American people possibly elect such a monster again?”
He said the fact that Trump could attract so much support despite his horrible character speaks volumes.” He acts as a lightning rod for fears and anxieties which tend to be dismissed by the bien pensant folk who dominate the media,” he said. “These people – socially conservative, patriotic, and often religious – are not the shavenheaded thugs we see on our television screens.
“In America, as in Britain, the concerns of these silent voters are often ignored by the ruling class. Trump, however vile, appears to them to listen.”
The Guardian
Mona Chalabi said countless articles were written over preceding months predicting a Biden win was far more likely than a Trump one.
“So a lot of people are shouting online and offline because they have been caught by surprise,” she said. “Because yet again, somehow, they trusted the polls. A significant lead of five to 10 percentage points appeared as soon as the surveys started and persisted right up until election day.”
She mused whether Trump voters were reluctant to confess their true vote to the pollsters and said exit polls were more reliable than those taken before the election because they speak to those who have already voted rather than speculate about who they might vote for.
“Journalists will continue to create charts predicting future presidents as long as readers continue to demand them,” she said. “I do not know how many times polls have to be wrong or how wrong they have to be for us to finally walk away from the dangerous seduction of predicting political outcomes.
“Seeing graphics that tell us the future is hypnotic, but it is very important to be awake. Especially now.”
The Daily Express
Leo Mckinstry said pollsters on both sides of the Atlantic “cocooned in their bubble of groupthink” keep getting it wrong.
“After the Tory victory in 2015, Brexit and the election of Donald Trump, they said they had learnt their lessons,” he said. “But that pledge was as empty as one of their flawed predictions. Once again, they never foresaw how close this contest would be. Joe Biden looks like he may just scrape home, but most experts had claimed he was on the verge of a landslide.”
He said the polling industry had badly misjudged the American public mood.
“That is partly because they were guilty of wishful thinking, imposing their own prejudices on the electorate,” he said. “They loathe Trump, so they believe most people feel the same way. Any evidence to the contrary was ignored because it did not fit the pre-ordained narrative. But the liberal analysts were also out of touch with too many electors on a range of crucial issues.”
He said much of the electorate relished his promise to make America great again and his willingness to stand up to China.
“The media’s co-ordinated cheerleading for Biden was shameless,” he added. “No presidential candidate in modern history has been subjected to less scrutiny.”