Support for independence ‘built on sand’ and ‘blind faith in Sturgeon’
not least because of the challenges countries face in coming out and rebuilding from Covid, that
Scotland should have the opportunity to choose whether or not to become independent in the earlier rather than the later part of the next parliament.
“Before the election in our manifesto I would anticipate we will put a more precise timescale on what we believe should happen.
“But right now – this is getting to the heart of why I’m just not prepared to put a specific date on it right now – we are still in the middle of a pandemic.”
The SNP hopes the UK Government’s opposition to another referendum will become unsustainable if the party secures a majority at the Holyrood elections in May.
These Islands carried out focus groups with Scots who voted No in 2014, Remain in 2016 and who have now switched to – or are leaning towards – independence.
Moderated by Alan Barnard of Campaign It!, the groups took place between September 21 and October 21 and involved 64 participants.
They found voters consistently framed their decision as a binary choice, with “bungling Boris and Brexit” on one side and “competent Nicola and independence” on the other, These Islands said.
Perceptions of Boris Johnson were almost universally negative. Voters felt unloved and condescended to by Westminster, while Labour is “missing in action”.
These Islands said Scots who have been “wooed by the Nationalist narrative need to be told they have a valuable role to play in a positive future for Britain”.
It added: “It’s about pride, selfesteem and self-respect – and right now these Scots feel that Scotland is unloved, disrespected and condescended to by Westminster.”
The think-tank continued: “For those who fear the break-up of the UK, the positive message that emerges from these focus groups is that support for independence is built on sand: it’s reliant on what appears to be blind faith in Nicola Sturgeon preventing voters engaging with the economic realities.
“It’s telling that when it comes to fiscal reality, we didn’t find potential Yes voters accepting their veracity but shrugging their shoulders (as we might have expected) – they simply refused to believe that the facts could be true.
“It can be argued, then, that
Scotland does not so much have an uninformed electorate as one that has been very skilfully fed misinformation.
“There is little political gain to be had from telling people that they have been misled – but finding trusted message carriers who can present facts in an accessible manner might help these voters work it out for themselves.”
These Islands said support for independence is based “principally on faith and fact-denial”, rendering it “potentially unstable”. It said “nothing will change unless the core issue is addressed: Scots must hear why they are valued”.