Brexit deal ‘could cost Scots economy £9bn over decade’
Minister warns agreement set to hit jobs at ‘worst possible time’
BORIS Johnson’s Brexit deal could cost Scotland about £9 billion over the next decade and hit jobs and the economy “at the worst possible time”, the Scottish Government has warned.
Constitution Secretary Michael Russell said extra costs could make Scottish businesses uncompetitive in markets such as manufacturing, agriculture and food and drink.
The 27 EU states are expected to formally back the post-brexit trade deal within days after an agreement was confirmed on Christmas Eve – four-and-a-half years after the referendum.
Ambassadors from the member states were being briefed on the contents of the deal on Christmas Day by Michel Barnier, who led Brussels’ negotiating team in the talks with the UK.
MPS and peers will be called back to Westminster on Wednesday to vote on the agreement, but MEPS are not expected to approve it until the new year, meaning it will have to apply provisionally until they give it the green light.
The draft treaty and associated Brexit agreements stretch to 1,246 pages of complex legal text.
SNP ministers said Scotland was being removed from a market worth £16bn in exports to Scottish companies, and which by population is seven times the size of the UK, as well as the Customs Union.
They said lamb and beef exports would be hard hit by the extra costs of exporting to the EU.
Businesses trying to access UK and EU markets would also face additional bureaucracy and costs, they said. For example, the seafood sector would require new certificates and changes to business practices to continue to export to the bloc.
Elsewhere, the Scottish Government said justice and security co-operation would be “seriously impacted”, with
Police Scotland and the Crown Office having to use slower and less effective tools in the fight against crime.
It said reduced EU migration would exacerbate shortages in key areas such as health and social care.
And it insisted the Scottish fishing industry “will see only a fraction” of the additional quota promised and the compensation arrangements agreed if the UK Government restricts access to UK waters.
Scottish students would also no longer be able to participate in Erasmus.
The Scottish Government said its modelling estimates that “a deal of
the type that appears to have been agreed” could cut Scotland’s GDP by about 6.1 per cent – £9bn in 2016 cash terms – by 2030 compared to EU membership.
Mr Russell said: “A no-deal outcome has thankfully been avoided but in the midst of a pandemic and economic recession Scotland is now being forced to cope with a hard Brexit in less than one week’s time.
“Leaving the European Single Market and Customs Union would be damaging at any time but in the middle of the current
crisis it is unforgivable and completely unnecessary.
“We are doing everything we can to mitigate against the consequences of the UK Government’s actions.
“Measures are being taken to protect trade and critical supply chains, to reduce the risks of disruption of goods and people crossing borders and to provide Scottish businesses with the vital advice and information they need to continue operating effectively after December 31.
“We are also working with UK administrations to ensure patients get the medicines and medical supplies needed and we are also confident that the flow of vaccines will be protected.
“Throughout this entire
Brexit process the Scottish Government has sought to engage constructively with the UK Government on preparedness and we will continue, as we always have done, to advocate for the interests of Scottish businesses and of Scottish people whenever possible, but we simply cannot avert every negative outcome.
“People in Scotland voted overwhelmingly to remain in the EU and have the right to determine their own future rather than face the long-term damage of a hard Brexit.
“Scotland is at heart a European nation, and shares its values. The UK Government has ignored our calls for a continuing close relationship with the EU and it is clearer than ever that the only way to regain the benefits of EU membership is for Scotland to become an independent country.”
Mr Johnson hailed the deal struck with the EU as a “new beginning” for Britain that resolved the European question that had “bedevilled” British politics for generations. But fishing leaders claimed he had sacrificed the industry to secure a trade agreement, while Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer branded the accord “thin”. However, his party will
back it in next week’s Commons vote because the alternative would be a “devastating” no-deal scenario.
Late haggling meant the deal was not concluded until
Christmas Eve – days before current trading arrangements expire at the end of December.
Mr Johnson said the document “will be the basis of a happy and successful and stable partnership with our friends in the EU for years to come”.
The Prime Minister has also claimed the deal meets the goals set out during the 2016 campaign to “take back control”.
He said it covers trade worth about £660bn and meant goods and components could be sold without tariffs and quotas in the EU market.
Meanwhile, the share of fish in British waters that the UK can catch will rise from around half now to two-thirds by the end of the five-anda-half-year transition, he said.
Allegations of unfair competition will be judged by an independent third-party arbitration panel with the possibility of a “proportionate” response.
At a Downing Street press conference on Christmas Eve, Mr Johnson said “we will as a result of this deal be able to catch and eat quite prodigious quantities of extra fish”, with £100 million for the industry to modernise and expand.
But Barrie Deas, chief executive of the National Federation of Fishermen’s Organisations, said there would be “frustration and anger” across the industry, adding: “In the end it was clear that Boris Johnson wanted an overall trade deal and was willing to sacrifice fishing.”
Mr Johnson used his Christmas message to sell the deal to a public weary of Brexit.
Brandishing a sheaf of papers, he said: “I have a small present for anyone who may be looking for something to read in that sleepy post-christmas lunch moment, and here it is, tidings, glad tidings of great joy, because this is a deal.”