Confidence and stability key for jobs
FOR large numbers of businesses in Scotland and beyond, 2020 has been a bad year. There are, of course, exceptions: if you could make personal protective equipment (PPE) or hand sanitiser, business has boomed. But for the great majority – especially those in hospitality, tourism and retail – it has been an exceptionally difficult time, to the point where their ability to invest or even survive is in doubt.
The economy as a whole has been shielded by Scottish and, to a much greater extent, UK Government schemes that have limited the rise in unemployment and fall in economic activity. The cost of these efforts has been enormous – the Government will this year borrow more than £5,000 for every person in the UK.
Curiously, in aggregate terms, consumers have done well with next to no inflation, their incomes protected, expenditure reduced and asset values – after a shock when Covid-19 first hit – on the rise.
We are, however, rather vulnerable. Not only is government debt in the UK and many other Western economies worryingly high but central banks are playing dangerously with the value of money through quantitative easing. If they lose control – and they might – inflation and severe economic damage will follow. At the very least interest rates would rise – even at, say 5per cent, a level very low by historic standards, consumers, investors and businesses would be badly impacted. Governments now have much less ability to ride to the rescue if there is another crisis.
The keys are confidence and stability. If people and businesses believe they are operating in a stable environment, they spend, they invest, jobs are created, taxes paid and public services are affordable.
As the Covid-19 vaccines become more widely available, there is a significant opportunity to build on people’s relief and positive spirit to create the conditions for growth.
That opportunity is fragile and may well be short-lived. Lack of focus, delay or pride on the part of our policymakers would create a significant risk of a downward spiral that would further damage our society and economy.
Here is what our politicians should do to give us the best chance of prosperity in 2021: l First, be clear and consistent. The blizzard of ever-changing and complex rules regarding Covid-19 and their differences within the UK are deeply unhelpful The different parts of the UK must work more closely together and only have different rules where they are really necessary. The direction of travel also needs to be consistent – there is no point in putting areas into less onerous conditions and then putting them back up because that creates confusion and uncertainty. Even if it means we hold areas in higher tiers for longer, we must get people confident that what is going to happen is a consistent easing of conditions, not a yo-yo. l Second, get on with fixing the public finances. Ignore those who say we should delay and keep piling up debt – that is a recipe for disaster if we hit another problem and a disservice to future generations who pick up the tab. Taxes need to rise and very soon. We must be cleverer than before – new taxes on the digital economy and wealth, extending National Insurance to pay for social care – all these and more should be on the table. We need to innovate rather than just pull the same old counterproductive levers. l Third, our politicians must stop indulging themselves on constitutional change. Brexit may or may not be seen as a good thing looking back in 50 years’ time but right now it is damaging our economy. The separation of Scotland from the UK would be catastrophic for Scotland’s economic prospects and its ability to pay for public services. Politicians of all persuasions need to work together to make the existing constitutional arrangement work better rather than smash it up.