Scientists reveal flooding in parts of Scotland may increase 34% by 2070

FLOODING across the UK could increase by an average of 15 to 35 per cent by 2080, a study has suggested.

The analysis revealed parts of Scotland face a 34% increase in flooding in the next 50 years, according to the study, while in the south-east of England, just an 18% increase is expected.

Researchers from the Water Resilient Cities project at Heriotwatt University in Edinburgh looked at flooding activity deemed “one-in-two-year” and “one-in-30year” events for their projections.

Dr Annie Visser-quinn, a data scientist at Heriot-watt, said: “We used multiple datasets and methods and compared the results, using the most up-to-date data available. The estimates paint a concerning picture for the future UK flood landscape, especially when combined with increasing urbanisation.

“Across the UK, we found the magnitude of the one-in-two-year event could increase by 15%-35%.

“The north and east of Scotland is facing a 34% increase in the magnitude of flood events, which is significant – the north of England and Wales are similarly high at 25%-28%.

“London and the Midlands have the lowest percentage increase. The magnitude of their one-in-two-year events will increase by 18% – but even a small increase can have a profound impact on urban areas.”

It comes as communities began to brace for Storm Christoph, with “significant” rainfall due across large swathes of the UK.

Major incidents were declared in Greater Manchester and South Yorkshire amid amber and yellow weather warnings for the storm also expected northern areas.

Last year’s Storm Dennis was considered a “one-in-30-year” event, but the scientists were unable to say whether the incidence of this will increase in years to come.

Dr Visser-quinn added: “We couldn’t get the different models to agree on those more unusual, extreme events, so there is still uncertainty there.

“However, we do think the bigger change will occur in south England.”

“Robust modelling will help improve our flood preparedness, which is why this work is essential. New climate data coming out this year should be investigated as quickly as possible to inform flood protection policies.”