Covid cases Under-45s virus admissions rise
HOSPITAL admissions for Covid have nearly doubled among under-45s in Scotland in the space of a week amid warnings that unvaccinated younger adults should be cautious as lockdown restrictions ease.
Seventy patients of 44 or under were admitted to hospital with Covid in the week to April 6, up from 40 the week before.
The figures obtained by The Herald also show that the number of hospitalisations in the first week of April among people aged under 25 actually outnumbered those for the over-75s.
HOSPITAL admissions for Covid have nearly doubled among under45s in Scotland in the space of a week amid warnings that unvaccinated younger adults should be cautious as lockdown restrictions ease.
A total of 70 patients aged 44 and under were admitted to hospital with Covid in the week to April 6, up from 40 the week before.
The figures obtained by The Herald from Public Health Scotland also show that the number of hospitalisations in the first week of April among people aged less than 25 actually outnumbered those for the over-75s – possibly for the first time in the pandemic.
Professor Linda Bauld, chair of public health at Edinburgh University, said the figures correspond with a period of around two to three weeks in March when community surveillance of the virus by the Office for National Statistics showed that there had been an increase in prevalence.
It was thought that primary schools reopening may have led to more adults mixing at work or socially.
Scottish Government data around the same time indicated that cases were plateauing due to a decline in infections among vaccinated older adults which was being offset by an uptick in people aged 20 to 45 testing positive.
Prof Bauld said this was now filtering through to hospitals.
She said: “That would make sense if you’re thinking about the lag time for admission into hospital being about 10 days.
“It relates to the increase in infections in March.”
By the beginning of April, under65s made up 81 per cent of Covid hospital admissions in Scotland, compared to 65% at the end of March.
The total number of hospital admissions had also increased, driven by infections among younger Scots. In the week to April 6, there were 151 Covid hospital admissions in Scotland compared to 132 in the week ending March 30.
Admissions among the under-25s increased week-on-week from nine to 24 – including 12 admissions for children aged five to 14. By contrast, admissions for those aged 75 and over fell markedly, from 33 to 22.
Prof Bauld said unvaccinated younger people are likely to make up an increasing share of hospital admissions as immunisation drives down cases in the elderly, but added that it was “a bit concerning” that the actual number of under-45s admitted to hospital had increased.
She said: “If we continue to see the decline in infections in the community generally that we’ve been seeing in the past couple of weeks, then those hospitalisations should come down.
“The only thing is, now we’re opening up, and you’re still going to have lots of young people in their 40s who are still vulnerable. That’s going run for some time.
“So will the numbers of people in hospital continue to decline? That’s dependent on what happens with infections – and as we open up there’s a risk that they won’t.
“If you look at what’s happening in India now, there’s loads of young adults in hospital. That’s a young country and you’ve got young people in their 20s, 30s, and 40s in hospital, and even children being hospitalised with the infection.
“So it’s important to send that message that just because you’re younger doesn’t mean you’re not vulnerable.”
Vaccination appointment letters are now being sent to over-40s, but the bulk of supplies continue to be targeted to second “booster” jags for older priority groups.
Roughly twice as many second doses as first doses were administered in the past 24 hours: 27,553 versus 13,720.
The Government says the immunisation programme is still on track to give all adults a first dose by the end of July, but modelling suggests that the vast majority of under-40s will remain unvaccinated when cinemas and music venues reopen in mid-may, and when pubs resume serving alcohol indoors.
Travel restrictions end today, with beer gardens, gyms, and shops due to open in less than two weeks.
To date, 20% of 16 to 39-year-olds have had a first dose.
As they are mainly from priority groups, such as unpaid carers, healthcare workers and individuals with health conditions, this proportion is now unlikely to change substantially until all over-40s are vaccinated.