Biggest parties’ manifestos ‘disconnected from reality’

SNP, Tories and Labour ‘failing to level’ with voters, says think-tank

THE manifestos of all three of Scotland’s biggest political parties are disconnected from “fiscal reality”, a leading economic think-tank has said.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said paying for the billions of pounds-worth of promises made by the SNP, Tories and Labour would likely mean hiking taxes or cutting spending in other areas.

It accused Scotland’s politicians of failing to level with voters.

Paul Johnson, director of the IFS, said the manifestos all made “strikingly big promises... without any serious attempt to provide costings or to say how they would be paid for”.

The think-tank said the Scottish Government’s budget is likely to be tight in certain areas from next year, even before the parties’ new spending plans are accounted for.

It said the SNP and Conservatives will “almost certainly” have to spend more on the NHS than they have budgeted for, in order to meet their pledges and keep pace with demand, while Labour has failed to provide figures after 2021/22.

Elsewhere, the IFS said an independent Scotland would start life with a large budget deficit “substantially higher than the rest of the UK” and would face difficult choices to bring this down.

David Phillips, an associate director at the IFS, said the manifestos all show “a disconnect from the fiscal reality the next Scottish Government is likely to face”.

He said: “Rising demand for, and costs of, health and social care could easily absorb three-quarters of the projected cash increase in the Scottish Government’s budget over the next few years, substantially more than the

SNP and Conservatives have budgeted for.

“Scottish Labour have not even set out NHS spending plans beyond this year but it is hard to imagine them spending less given their plans for a £15-an-hour minimum wage for care workers by the end of the Parliament.

“Paying for the billions in additional pledges in these manifestos would therefore mean either increases in Scottish taxes or

cuts to some other areas of spending, unless substantially more UK Government funding is forthcoming.

“It is also disappointing that, with the exception of the Scottish Conservatives, there is no serious attempt by the parties to provide transparent and comprehensive costings for their plans.

“And the Conservatives’ document underestimates the true cost of their flagship policy – the NHS ‘double lock’ – by at least £600 million, or more than a quarter. If the hope was that fiscal devolution would improve the financial accountability of Scottish politics, the evidence of this election is that it a hope that has not yet been fulfilled.”

Only the manifesto pledges for the three largest parties were examined due to time and resource constraints.

Mr Phillips said the Scottish Government’s overall budget was projected to increase by about £4.9 billion over the next four years.

However, increased costs for the NHS and social care are predicted to absorb 75 per cent of this, he said, making spending promises elsewhere more difficult.

Delivering pledges outside the healthcare portfolios would likely mean tax rises or cuts elsewhere, he added.

Mr Phillips said: “Scotland’s politicians have really failed to level with voters on the challenges that lie ahead.”

SNP Finance Secretary Kate Forbes said her party is the only one with the “serious plans required to drive the post-pandemic recovery which is needed”.

She said: “Overall, our proposed spending, including our significant new investment in our NHS, falls within the projections of the Scottish Government’s Medium Term Financial Strategy , making our plans affordable even on relatively cautious estimates of future revenue.”

Labour’s shadow Scottish secretary Ian Murray said the party’s plans are ambitious “because of the scale of the task ahead”. He said: “We funded our recovery plans within the best of our knowledge of the consequentials available.”

Scottish Conservative economy spokesman Maurice Golden said his party was the only one to “fully cost our manifesto and we’re the only party with bold, ambitious and realistic plans to tackle the jobs and economic crisis”.

On independence, Mr Phillips said Scotland’s underlying fiscal position has been “relatively weaker than the UK as a whole”.

He said Covid has “blown a hole” in Scottish and UK finances, while Brexit has also raised tricky issues around the border with England. He said: “It’s clear that an independent Scotland would start life with a large deficit. It would need to get that down, and that would mean difficult choices.”