Crisis of confidence among candidates despite major surge in job vacancies
GIVEN the startling number of jobs currently advertised, it might seem surprising that Scotland’s unemployment rate fell only slightly during the three months to the end of March.
Under the circumstances, any reduction in unemployment is welcome, but with the sheer volume of vacancies one could be forgiven for assuming there are few available workers out there.
According to the Office for National Statistics, unemployment is now at 4.3 per cent in Scotland, down just 0.2% on the previous three months but slightly better than the UK average of 4.8%. But in the month of April there were almost 64,000 jobs advertised online across Scotland, a staggering 254% uplift from a year earlier.
That is, of course, compared to the chasm created at the start of lockdown last year, but by all other measures that figure is still startling. Driven by the sense of optimism that has come with mass vaccinations, hiring demand is overcoming Covid-19.
But it’s worth noting that April’s employer demand is the highest since October 2019, long before Covid became a household word. It is also 23% higher than March, showing that the underlying economy and pent-up hiring demand has burst out of the dam that is lockdown. Catering and hospitality firms are not losing any time in their mission to quench the nation’s thirst and get away from a homecooked meal. Companies such as Premier Inn, Beefeater, Buck’s Bar and Thundercat are amongst a plethora of employers in the sector advertising on s1jobs right now.
They have been restocking on staff at a blistering rate – job advertisements across the hospitality sector have risen from just 375 in February to 3,393 in April. A full third of those vacancies are for chefs, who are proving particularly difficult to recruit as some have left the sector for good to pursue work in industries less susceptible to public health restrictions.
As we have seen in Glasgow and Moray – and perhaps soon in other places like East Renfrewshire and Midlothian – the risks from disruption caused by varying levels of lockdown restrictions remains. For the moment, however, employers in the hospitality sector are staffing up regardless in the hope that any disturbance will be short-lived.
Catering and hospitality led the way in April, but across the board all sectors grew in terms of hiring activity. Other big winners were the sales, retail, customer service and leisure/sport/entertainment industries, marking a real turnaround for those parts of the economy that have been the biggest victims of job losses.
Such widespread growth resembles a bull market by any standard, but availability of staff is going to be an issue for employers going forward.
Many people will be reluctant to come off furlough if they fear their new job could be cut short by the shifting tide of health restrictions. Confidence among candidates will take some time to catch up with that of employers.