Ayatollah’s hardline protege tipped as victor as Iranians go to polls
IRANIANS have begun voting in a presidential election tipped in favour of a hardline protege of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
State-linked opinion polls put judiciary chief Ebrahim Raisi as the dominant front-runner in a field of just four candidates.
Former Central Bank chief Abdolnasser Hemmati is running as the race’s moderate candidate but has not inspired the same support as outgoing President Hassan Rouhani.
If elected, Mr Raisi would be the first serving Iranian president sanctioned by the US government even before entering office over his involvement in the mass execution of political prisoners in 1988, as well as his time as the head of Iran’s internationally criticised judiciary – one of the world’s top executioners.
It also would firmly put hardliners in control across the Iranian government as negotiations in Vienna continue over trying to save Tehran’s tattered nuclear deal with world powers, as it enriches uranium to the closest point yet to weapons-grade levels.
Tensions remain high with the US and also Israel, which is believed to have carried out a series of attacks targeting Iranian nuclear sites and assassinating the scientist who created its military atomic programme decades earlier.
Polls opened at 7am local time for the vote, which has seen widespread public apathy after a panel under Mr Khamenei barred hundreds of candidates, including reformists and those aligned with Mr Rouhani.
Mr Khamenei cast the ceremonial vote from Tehran, where he urged the public to take part.
“Through the participation of the people the country and the Islamic ruling system will win great points in the international arena, but the ones who benefit first are the people themselves,” Mr Khamenei said. “Go ahead, choose and vote.”
Mr Raisi, wearing a black turban that identifies him in Shiite tradition as a direct descendant of Islam’s Prophet Muhammad, later voted from a mosque in southern Tehran, waving to those gathered to cast ballots.
The cleric acknowledged in comments afterwards that some may be “so upset that they don’t want to vote”.
“I beg everyone, the lovely youths, and all Iranian men and women speaking any accent or language from any region and with any political views, to go and vote and cast their ballots,” Mr Raisi said.
There are more than 59 million eligible voters in Iran, a nation home to over 80 million people.
However, the state-linked Iranian Student Polling Agency has estimated a turnout of just 42 per cent, which would be the lowest since the country’s 1979 Islamic Revolution.
Fears about a low turnout have some warning Iran may be turning away from being an Islamic Republic – a government with elected civilian leadership overseen by a supreme leader from its Shiite clergy – to a country more tightly governed by its supreme leader.
As supreme leader, Mr Khamenei has final say on all matters of state and oversees its defence and atomic programme.
“This is not acceptable,” said former President Mohammad Khatami, a reformist who sought to change its theocracy from inside during his eight years in office.
“How would this conform to being a republic or Islamic?”
For his part, Mr Khamenei warned of “foreign plots” seeking to depress turnout in a speech on Wednesday.
A flyer handed out on Wednesday on the streets of Tehran by hardliners followed in that thought, bearing the image of Revolutionary Guard General Qassem Soleimani, who was killed in a US drone strike in 2020.
“If we do not vote: Sanctions will be heavier, the US and Israel will be encouraged to attack Iran,” the leaflet warned. “Iran will be under shadow of a Syrian-style civil war and the ground will be ready for assassination of scientists and important figures.”
Dissidents and some reformists have called for a boycott, saying the barring of several contenders has removed any genuine competition.
The elections come at a time of widespread discontent among Iranians over economic hardships.
However, there is widespread apathy among voters, after three years of crippling sanctions reinstated by America when it abandoned a nuclear deal between world powers and Iran.
The elections coincide with the latest round of talks in Vienna aimed at reviving the accord, which saw Iran agree to limit its nuclear programme in return for sanctions relief.
Almost 600 hopefuls, including 40 women, had registered for the election.
But in the end only seven men were approved last month by the 12 jurists and theologians on the hardline Guardian Council, an unelected body that has the ultimate decision with regard to candidates’ qualifications.
By Thursday, three of the approved candidates had dropped out.
If no candidate wins more than 50% of the vote in the first round there will be a run-off election.
The elections are seen by many Iranians as a brazen power grab by the hardliners who will have all the centres of power in their control.
But there will be a downside: greater dissatisfaction among a people already in desperate economic straits, and instability.
If Mr Raisi becomes president, the hardliners will want to establish a puritanical system of Islamic government in the vision of the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
This will bring in more controls on social activities, fewer freedoms and jobs for women, and tighter control of the social media and the press.
Under a hardline presidency, Iran would continue to have tense relations with the West.
It would continue to push to extend Shia Islam and project power in the region with the help of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) – a major armed, political and economic force in Iran – and its local proxies.
The election of a hardline president might also adversely affect the current indirect talks between Iran and the US to return to compliance with the 2015 nuclear agreement and have the key US sanctions lifted.
The ones who benefit first are the people themselves