Less than one in 20 coronavirus infections are leading to hospital admission
FEWER than one in 20 Covid infections are now leading to a hospital admission in Scotland, according to analysis.
The Scottish Government’s “Covid-19 Strategic Framework” report describes figures showing that fewer than 4 per cent of people testing positive for Covid were ending up in hospital by June 7 as an “important change” in the epidemic compared to the beginning of January, when 14% of cases were translating into a hospital admission.
The report notes: “As well as a lower proportion of cases now resulting in hospitalisation, there is evidence that those who do require hospital care are, on average, discharged more quickly.
“The reduced length of stay, in combination with reduced rates of admission, is why hospital bed use in Scotland has increased more slowly during May 2021 than in comparable earlier growth phases of the epidemic where positive case numbers have risen quickly.”
However, in a statement to the Scottish Parliament, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon cautioned MSPS that even a small percentage could put pressure on the NHS if infections spiral out of control.
On the basis of the most recent data that between 3-4% of infections will result in a hospital admission seven days later, NHS Scotland should expect to see between 277 and 369 Covid patients as a result of the 9,277 infections recorded over the past seven days.
The downward trend has gone hand-in-hand with the vaccine rollout, which focused on the elderly first and means the majority of infections and hospital admissions are now occurring among younger people who are less likely to become seriously ill.
The most recent data from Public Health England indicates that people who are vaccinated with a single dose are 75% less likely to require hospital treatment due to a Covid infection compared to unvaccinated individuals, with protection rising to 92% (Astrazeneca) and 96% (Pfizer) after both doses. So far, 82% of Scotland’s adult population has had a single vaccination and 58.5% are fully vaccinated.
However, the report also notes continuing uncertainties over the Delta variant, adding: “The relationship between infections and hospital occupancy appears to have changed significantly since the start of 2021 but we continue to learn more about the impact of the Delta variant, which may change this relationship again.”
The most recent technical report on the Delta variant shows that vaccination considerably reduces – but does not eliminate – the risk of infection.
Of the 60,624 cases in England since February 1, confirmed by genetic sequencing or genotyping, 58.6% (35,521) occurred in people who were unvaccinated. However, 6.7% of cases (4,087) were identified in people 14 or more days on from their second vaccine dose.