The SNP’S answer to global instability? More please
WE live in dangerous and unstable times. A far cry from the triumph of liberal democracy declared by Francis Fukuyama in his book The End Of History And The Last Man following the collapse of the Soviet empire.
The Cold War was grim and its passing a cause for unqualified celebration. However, the period was characterised by predictable bipolar stability. Today’s world is volatile and multi-polar. Liberal democratic values – including respect for human rights, free speech and the rule of law – are increasingly contested by competing models of aggressive and intolerant authoritarianism. Putin’s Russia. Radical Islam. China’s new global super-power flexing muscles – and brandishing a “Belt and Road” chequebook – as it adopts a more assertive international posture.
The climate emergency, pressure on water and other natural resources, consequential mass migration and a contest for technology supremacy – determining whether the outcome is liberating or repressive – all heighten tensions. A resilient, rules-based international order to manage these tensions and mediate conflicts can no longer be relied upon.
This is the strategic context for the chaotic, ignominious and tragic end to Nato’s Afghanistan mission. Western powers seem to have lost their bearings. Where’s their shared worldview? What are they trying collectively to achieve? Being at sixes and sevens is never a good look. Malign influences are encouraged to exploit points of weakness.
After the turbulent Trump America First years, expectations were high for the Biden presidency, promising a return to more conventional and reliable leadership. All the more shocking to discover an Afghanistan withdrawal plan set in motion without proper consultation.
“Never let a good crisis go to waste”. That was Churchill’s advice. We should take it now. The US has sustained a serious reputational hit. Allies must help repair the damage by speaking truth to American power and rebuilding a sense of common purpose.
The US has no more reliable ally than the UK. Europe’s biggest contributor to Nato, more than meeting our burden-sharing commitment. One of the world’s largest aid budgets. Diplomatic clout as a UN Security Council permanent member. And chair of the G7 and COP26. The world’s third-most powerful cyber nation. Its fifth-largest economy. And this year the G7’s fastest growing thanks – as the IMF has acknowledged – to rapid vaccine rollout and generous pandemic financial support. And free from the political distraction of imminent national elections.
By contrast, EU leadership enters a period of transition. The Franco-german axis drives the EU. After 14 years, the EU is losing its sheet anchor – Chancellor Merkel. She’ll be a hard act to follow. And an unpopular President Macron will be pre-occupied securing re-election next year.
Stability at home makes you stronger abroad. Which brings me to Scotland.
Faced with global uncertainty, one hoped
Scotland’s First Minister might show a bit of humility and focus on addressing policy failures in areas for which she has direct responsibility. But why sweat the small stuff when you can indulge in a bit of censorious finger-wagging on issues for which you have no responsibility?
If Nicola Sturgeon used the time she spends developing her embryonic foreign policy attending to Scotland’s domestic problems, we’d all be better off.
But let’s accept her own estimation of herself as a global stateswoman, with views on international issues worth listening to. What’s her answer to global instability?
Easy. Let’s have more of it. Push ahead with breaking up the UK. That’s the priority to which she and her mini-me Green accomplices are committed. One feeling wildly out of touch with current wider world reality. SNP politicians are so gripped by monomania, a destructive meteorite could be hurtling towards Earth and one suspects they’d still be obsessing about Indyref2.
On Joe Biden’s inauguration day, Nicola Sturgeon tweeted: “Scotland looks forward to working with the new administration as we tackle global challenges.” It’s safe to say destabilising America’s closest ally is probably one challenge the President could do without.
In 2014, Barack Obama was asked about independence. His response was careful and respectful of Scotland’s democratic process. His view was, however, unmistakeable. He said that the US had “a deep interest in making sure that one of our closest allies that we will ever have remains a strong, robust, united and effective partner”. Similar sentiments were expressed recently by the outgoing US consul in Edinburgh, Ellen Wong.
None of this should come as a shock. We live in a world of malign state and non-state actors who will target what they see as the West’s vulnerabilities. Their methods are less obvious and more insidious than during the Cold War. Disinformation, cyber attacks, electoral interference and economic coercion to name a few. And the threats are real.
The Scottish Environmental Protection Agency last Christmas Eve was the subject of the most serious cyber attack. It was locked out of its IT systems and paralysed for months, unable to process pollution permits, planning applications and waste licences.
The attack received barely a mention in much of Scotland’s media and there’s been no public questioning of the Scottish Government’s preparedness. What mitigation measures and contingency plans were in place? And has there been a full assessment of how exposed other Scottish public agencies might be?
The Irish press recently reported a Russian spy ship’s suspicious manoeuvres off the coast of Donegal – the landing point for sensitive transatlantic underwater cables. Irish Dail member Cathal Berry – a former Irish intelligence officer – was quoted as saying: “We are Europe’s weak link in defence … Russia has discerned this weakness for themselves and are now taking full advantage.”
So let’s not become an item on America’s risk register. Or a “vulnerability” to be targeted by aggressors. Now is a moment for the UK to speak with a clear, strong and united voice. There’s enough instability in the world without the SNP’S promise of more.
Pushing ahead with breaking up the UK – that’s the priority to which she and her mini-me Green accomplices are committed
Andrew Dunlop was an adviser to former Conservative prime minister David Cameron during the 2014 independence referendum