Scottish small businesses more optimistic than at any time in last two years

SMALL businesses in Scotland are more optimistic than at any time in the last two years, new figures from the Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) reveal, with confidence higher north of the Border than the UK average of +5.5.

FSB’S Small Business Index (SBI) for the first quarter of 2024 found confidence back in “positive territory” at +10.7% with the organisation saying that this “growing optimism reflects improvements in consumer spending and the economy more broadly”.

However, Andrew Mcrae, FSB’S Scotland policy chair, warned of “clear signs of the strong headwinds continuing to face small businesses” as more firms reported falling revenues and staff numbers than experienced growth. He also cautioned that firms should not take recovery “for granted”.

Mr Mcrae said: “It is very welcome that we are starting to see the first green shoots of economic recovery, with nearly two in five small businesses in Scotland planning to expand in the coming year.

“But after two hard years of the post-covid cost of doing business crisis, we can’t take sustained recovery for granted. Our members’ experience shows it remains a tough business environment with sharply increased costs across the board.”

Noting it is “vital” that new First Minister John Swinney puts growth and the needs of small businesses at the “heart of his agenda”, Mr Mcrae added: “That means delivering on the most significant planks of the New Deal for Business, and in particular ensuring there is a fuller assessment of the impact on small businesses whenever any new regulations are brought forward.

“There’s also a pressing need to accelerate work to understand the cumulative impact of regulations on small businesses.”

The SBI found slightly more than one-third of small businesses (34.8%) in Scotland expected their performance to improve in the next three months, compared to slightly less than one-quarter (24.1%) who expect it will get worse.

“The findings represent the most positive outlook since Q1 2022 and follow three consecutive quarters of negative sentiment,” the FSB noted.

“Although Scotland’s GDP contracted by 0.6% in Q4 2023 on a quarterly basis, growth prospects appear more positive moving forward. While economic headwinds remain, it is hoped that small businesses in Scotland can expect demand from households to improve further this year once the Bank of England begins cutting interest rates.”

The index also revealed that more than four-fifths of firms in Scotland (83.2%) experienced rising costs, largely due to increased utility bills, rents and wage bills. And the proportion reporting revenue decline (33.9%) still exceeded the number reporting an increase (31.3%) in Q1, while slightly more firms experienced a contraction in employee numbers (11.5%) than an increase (10.6%).

The FSB said that looking ahead, a net balance of 9.1% of Scotland’s small businesses expect headcount numbers to rise in the next three months, while an increased proportion (39.1%) have aspirations to grow their business in the next year. That, however, lags behind the 52.4% Uk-wide rate.