If season was finished Hearts would go down
ANALYSIS
FOLLOWING the decision to end the 2019/20 Premiership campaign, it now seems a near certainty that Hearts will be plying their trade in the second tier next season. League reconstruction could yet serve as a get-out-of-jail-free card for the Gorgie club but, as it stands, they are going down.
While supporters will feel aggrieved about the circumstances of the club’s relegation, it should come as no surprise. It has been coming – even if the remaining league fixtures were fulfilled.
The truth of the matter is that barring a minor miracle, Daniel Stendel’s side were going down. The capital club have been dreadful all season; four league wins from a possible 30 tells its own story. There is a reason why they were bottom of the pile, cut four points adrift of Hamilton. Aside from a couple of impressive performances in crunch fixtures – such as against Rangers in the Scottish Cup or in Edinburgh derbies – the Tynecastle outfit have never really got going.
The decision to appoint Stendel as Craig Levein’s successor was a bold one. The two managers could hardly be more different in their approach to the game. Levein’s dour, defensive brand of football is at odds with Stendel’s preference to play an aggressive, high-tempo game that relies heavily on pressing the opposition.
To be fair to the former Barnsley manager, Hearts have at times shined in Stendel’s system. The league win over Rangers was followed up with another victory over the Ibrox side in the Scottish Cup, while the 3-1 win over Hibs at Easter Road in March was an example of Stendel-ball at its best.
The problem, though, is that Stendel’s system only really reaped rewards when going up against teams that look to seize the initiative. The German’s tactical philosophy centres around reacting quickly whilst in transition from defence to attack. By capitalising on opposition players being out of position, Hearts can exploit space in the final third. All very well in theory but in practice it has proved costly. Setting up in such an aggressive manner against the likes of Celtic, Rangers or
Hibs – teams who will look to dominate the ball and commit players – is a high-risk, highreward scenario.
The trouble, though, comes against the rest of the Premiership. And to be specific, clubs in the bottom half of the table where the football tends to be more cautious and pragmatic. Whenever Hearts have come up against teams in the bottom half of the league, they have struggled to find a way through a deep and compact defence Coupled with the high line that Stendel has persevered with, it is ultimately what has cost Hearts this season. A look at Hearts’ points-per-game (PPG) under Stendel demonstrates just how varied the performances have been. Against top-six teams, the Tynecastle club were averaging 1.0 PPG. But against sides in the bottom half, Hearts’ PPG dropped to 0.71: a truly woeful return.
Hearts may well have had eight games left to play in order to secure their Premiership status, but there is absolutely nothing to suggest that such a dramatic turnaround was on the cards. Seven of those eight fixtures would come against sides in the bottom half, and the capital club have recorded just a single league win against these opponents all season when they thrashed St Mirren 5-2 at Tynecastle under Austin MacPhee. In the most recent meeting between the two, Jim Goodwin’s side came out on top in a 1-0 win in Paisley that perfectly demonstrated the inherent flaws in Stendel’s side.
That Hearts will be relegated without completing their remaining fixtures is still a matter for contention. But even if they played their remaining games, they almost certainly would have been relegated all the same.