Hundreds of Scots who tested positive for Covid-19 are missing
‘Developmental’ technology blamed for 415 afflicted people tracking system cannot trace
FRESH questions on just how effective Scotland's test-and-protect tracking system is have been raised after if emerged hundreds of positive-tested people are “missing”.
The concerns come as the number of people being tested has fallen while at the same time the number of positive tests has risen.
SCOTLAND’S test-and-protect tracking performance is missing over 400 positive tested patients as the number of people checked has slumped, raising fresh questions on how effective the system is.
Official Test and Protect figures published by Public Health Scotland show that 25 out of 2,941 who tested positive for Covid-19 between June 22 and September 5 were unable to be followed up.
But over the same period, according to the Electronic Communication of Surveillance in Scotland (ECOSS) system developed by Health Protection Scotland to capture laboratory results, there were actually 3,356 people who tested positive for Covid over the same period. That’s 415 more.
It comes as new figures reveal the number of positive Covid cases has trebled and the numbers in intensive care have doubled.
In the seven days to Thursday there were 59,608 people tested for Covid-19, including home testing, which was 32,375 fewer than the previous seven days, a 35% drop.
Last Monday alone, some 6,108 were tested for coronavirus in Scotland – the lowest in two weeks and over 10,000 fewer than the previous Monday.
Meanwhile, the number of people testing positive for Covid has more than trebled over the two weeks, rising from 51 at the end of August to 175 on Friday.
The number of Covid-19 patients in intensive care units in Scotland has more than doubled over those two weeks from three on August 28 to seven on Thursday.
And the number of care homes with a suspected case of Covid-19 has started rising.
There were 66 on August 26 and on Wednesday that had gone up by 12 to 78
– with nine in the previous seven days alone.
It comes a month after The Herald on Sunday revealed the Scottish Government admitted it was unable to demonstrate the effectiveness of Scotland’s flagship Test and Protect system and that it was not expected to be in place till the end of that month.
The Government has come under rising pressure to improve its testing ability as the nation faces a second wave of Covid-19.
Asked about the “missing 415”, the Scottish Government said that the Track and Trace data was “developmental” and that while CMS went live on June 22, NHS boards started using it in a phased approach. Boards had been previously been using a ‘tracing tool’ which “did not give the level of granularity required.”
All boards were due to be fully functioning on CMS from July 21.
The respected Scottish think tank Common Weal, which is wanting mass random sample testing in local communities to keep the virus at bay, says that since the start of the crisis it has become “increasingly concerned” that Scotland does not seem to be following best practice on Covid management from the very start of the crisis.
It said it produced in April a fullycosted decentralised community random testing system plan to catch evidence of outbreak at the earliest point to prevent a second lockdown “at all costs”.
It said the Scottish Government changed tack two weeks later and announced it would reinstate a testing regime.
But when details were provided two weeks after that it was quite a different system to the one proposed.
It said it involved self-reporting “so couldn’t catch infection before it became an outbreak and it was centralised so rapid localised action wasn’t possible”.
Common Weal director Robin McAlpine said: “The purpose of lockdown is to get the community transmission as low as possible but that does not defeat the virus. You need to get the community transmission as low as possible so that you can effectively control it from there. But that needs the early testing and very local, very fast response measures taken in other countries.
“Creating bespoke lockdowns on the fly and imposing them on entire regions based on the terribly limited datasets the low level of testing Scotland is providing is very hard to justify.”
At the start of August the Scottish Government said that the National Contact Tracing Centre and Public Health Scotland was continuing to work with CMS [Case Management System] users across the territorial boards to “improve data quality ahead of publication”.
Scientists say clear data on testing and subsequent contact tracing is crucial to be able to have a clear idea whether the spread of Covid-19 can be curbed.
Last month, researchers from University College London (UCL) and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine warned the current testing and contact tracing south of the Border was inadequate to prevent a second wave of coronavirus after schools reopened.
This is because the contact tracing system must reach at least 68% of people who have tested positive for coronavirus, and their contacts, in order to contain the spread.
At that point the system reached 50% of contacts and only a small fraction of symptomatic cases were tested.
The researchers found the most recent data showed about 81% of positives being
Creating bespoke lockdowns on the fly and imposing them on entire regions based on the terribly limited datasets the low level of testing Scotland is providing is very hard to justify
interviewed, about 81% of those reporting contacts and about 75% of those contacts being reached equating to 50% coverage.
The Scottish Government’s Test and Protect policy kicked in on May 28 to ensure there was no further spread of Covid-19 and there have continuing calls to ensure it is fit for purpose.
The Scottish Greens have said testing capacity must be ready for the start of the university term. They raised concerns that the system had been overloaded when schools returned, with many parents having to travel hundreds of miles to access a test.
Patrick Harvie, co-leader of the Scottish Green, said: “We saw that the testing system broke down when children returned to school last month. With university terms commencing next week, we need to make sure the same doesn’t happen again, and that students are kept safe.
“The rise in infections in Scotland is concerning, but a blame game helps nobody. We welcome the clearer guidance about meeting in groups, but we must ensure the support and systems are in place so that they can be followed.”
Harvie also raised concerns by teaching union the EIS over the provision of education for children with additional support needs under current restrictions, which prevents close contact and one-toone support.
Last week, it emerged that technical difficulties dogged a vital electronic reporting tool to ensure Covid safety in care homes as laboratory issues were resulting in fewer tests for staff and delays in results of up to 10 days.
Umbrella body Scottish Care said the timing of Covid test results had deteriorated, coinciding with the reopening of schools.
Scottish Care said the problems have led to a “lack of faith in the integrity, resilience and rigour of the national testing programme” and called for Scottish Government intervention.
A Scottish Government spokesman said: “The number of tests carried out will fluctuate according to demand, just as the number of positive results will go up and down.
“We are constantly scrutinising options which could help keep the virus suppressed while allowing people’s lives to return to as close to normal as possible, including extending community testing.
“We are working closely and at pace with the UK Government and others to ensure we implement suitable options as soon as we are assured they are effective and practicable.
“We continue to work towards the target set out in our testing strategy of building laboratory processing capacity to approximately 65,000 tests per day between NHS Scotland laboratories and the Lighthouse Lab in Glasgow as we move into the autumn and winter.”