‘I do not believe the constitutional issue is the No. 1 concern’ Cards after Sunak’s hint?
A COURT battle between the UK and Scottish Governments over indyref2 while the country seeks to recover from the ravages of the Covid pandemic would be the “most scandalous dereliction of duty in modern British and Scottish history”, Jack McConnell has insisted.
The former First Minister, in an exclusive interview with The Herald on Sunday, says there is now a “disconnect” in Scotland between the Tories and the SNP on one side, obsessed by the constitutional agenda, and the Scottish public on the other, wanting the focus to be on economic recovery, jobs, health, education and the environment.
“Post-Brexit and postpandemic I do not believe the constitutional issue is the number one concern at all of voters and people across communities in Scotland,” declared Lord McConnell of Glenscorrodale.
Noting how polls place independence low down on Scots’ list of priorities, he said: “Nicola Sturgeon does not want to talk about that referendum in this election campaign because she knows that’s not where the voters are at the moment and yet, as soon as they get into government, the referendum will be their number one priority again.
“There is a space there for the Scottish Labour Party. People are worried about their jobs, their schools, and the delays in their operations and diagnoses by the health service. They are worried about the environment. We have a Green Party that just blindly supports the SNP all the time instead of being a proper Green Party. So again, there is a space there.
“Anas Sarwar’s five points for national recovery show he is absolutely in the right place politically. It’s just whether or not voters are ready to turn out in enough numbers to back that, to give him a chance to see a start of a resurgence for Scottish Labour.”
Asked if thought, as some do, that the May 6 Scottish election will be a referendum on a referendum, the Labour peer responded quickly: “No, not at all. Elections are complex and they rest on many different issues. The SNP are trying to win votes by making everything free instead of saying they want a referendum as their number one priority.”
But when asked if Boris Johnson should concede a second independence referendum if the SNP secure a majority of seats, Lord McConnell laughed. “Johnson won’t. It’s an academic argument. He will just keep quoting back at the SNP that they said this was once in a generation.”
Indeed, the ex-FM stressed: “I would continue to articulate the case for putting recovery ahead of the referendum. That case is absolutely where people are.”
But, of course, Ms Sturgeon has pledged if the Prime Minister does indeed continue to set his face against facilitating a second independence poll, a future SNP administration, post-May 6, will initiate one anyway and dare the Tory Government to challenge it in court.
Lord McConnell is scathing about such a prospect. “It might suit the SNP and the Tories to have a fight in the courts over a referendum but what a terrible dereliction of duty that would be on both sides,” he said. “People are losing their jobs. I know of young people who have attempted to commit suicide in the past 12 months. I know people who have died of cancer because they did not get a diagnosis in time. Those circumstances are not going away any time soon in Scotland.
“That sense of loss, fear and worry among young people, the huge backlog of operations and diagnoses in the health service, and businesses that are close to going over the edge.
“For the SNP and the Tories to have a fight in the courts over a referendum when they should be giving their full attention to dealing with those problems would be the most scandalous dereliction of duty in modern British and Scottish history.”
Lord McConnell explained how the “Corbyn leadership and, more importantly, the capture of the party machine by the ultraLeft has significantly damaged Labour’s relationship with most parts of the country outside the metropolitan areas”.
He admited, at times, under the previous UK leadership, that Labour appeared “anti-British but also not engaging”. It lacked consistency and showed “no respect for devolution and autonomy in Scotland”.
The “reset” under Sir Keir Starmer has begun. There is now a “healthy respect” by London for the Labour parties in Scotland and Wales. “We are on the right track but have some way to go yet.”
When Tony Blair won his famous landslide victory in 1997 after 18 years of Tory government, he achieved a 10 per cent swing. The mountain Sir Keir faces to form a majority administration is even higher – he needs a 13% swing.
But Lord McConnell dismissed any notion of a pre-election pact with the Liberal Democrats, insisting what Sir Keir has to show Labour is a “proper national party of government again … competing everywhere”.
The 60-year-old former party leader also insisted UK ministers must “re-engage” with Scotland. “The reason there’s been a rise in support for independence is fewer and fewer people in Scotland have felt connected to the UK Government and the question is: what relevance is that level of government to me? UK ministers need to become relevant and you don’t become relevant by waving flags around. You become relevant by talking to people and listening to them and acting on their concerns. They can do that in their reserved responsibilities – they don’t need to interfere in devolution to do that.”
Asked about Mr Johnson’s decision not to campaign in Scotland, he said: “Be brave enough to come to Scotland, face people, talk to them about the issues that matter to them and go back and build your social security policies, your immigration system, your response to climate change, your economic strategy to build back better. Build these things based on the real experience of the people in Scotland as well as in England.”
Build these things based on the real experience of the people in Scotland
was caught in a “very Kafkaesque trap; he is finding it very difficult to govern but is unable to call a General Election”.
Conservatives complained the FTPA had led to “paralysis” while their opponents argued the blockage was more due to the lack of support for the PM’s Brexit plans.
The parliamentary deadlock only ended when the Commons passed a bill that overrode the FTPA and paved the way for the December 2019 election. A draft bill to repeal the Act is already before Parliament with one proposal, an “ouster clause”, aimed at stopping the courts from exercising oversight over decisions to do with the dissolution of parliaments.
This looks like “Boris’s revenge” i.e. a direct response to the UK Supreme Court’s humiliating ruling that his Government had acted unlawfully when it tried to prorogue Parliament for several weeks in what was widely seen as a naked attempt to avoid parliamentary scrutiny at a crucial stage of the Brexit process.
Money’s on 2023
The very fact that a bill to repeal the FTPA will be in the UK Government’s programme suggests Mr Johnson is not looking at an election in May 2024 but, rather, September 2023. Not May of that year, however, because new boundary changes in England are due to come into force that summer, which Tory MPs expect to give them a helping hand in holding onto redrawn seats. Rishi Sunak’s spring Budget also seemed to point to an election in 2023 rather than 2024.
The calculation is the fiscal measures in the Chancellor’s plan will add £73 billion to the economy, as it rebounds from Covid, by the spring of 2023 – the start of the campaign period to a September poll and then, remarkably, from 2024 to 2026 subtracts a similar amount as growth forecasts dip markedly.
April 2023 is when the hike in tax on company profits, from 19% to 25%, is due to hit. Politically, the timing could help deprive Labour of one of its traditional targets.
Given the hundreds of billions of pounds the Conservative Government has and will be spending over the next few years because of the pandemic, it is hard to see how Labour could make a reasonable case to spend even more a la Corbyn.
With the Tory administration stinging the big companies, Labour would be loath to disagree that those who have made big profits out of Covid should pay their fair share. Plus, much of Labour’s previous election spending plans have been predicated on raising corporation tax, which the Tories will be doing anyway. Indeed, earlier this month, Sir Keir revealed he had told his Shadow Cabinet to be “electionready for 2023”.
Of course, if a week is a long time in politics, a year is an eternity – and the lingering effects of the pandemic could produce unforeseen circumstances and have the capacity to knock any well-co-ordinated election plan off course. Equally, if the economy picks up faster than expected and tax receipts roll in above predicted levels, then Mr Sunak might happily have some leeway to pull a pre-election rabbit or two out of his red box.
But, in the wake of such a seismic event as Covid-19, Mr Johnson wants to arm himself with as many political tools as he can find to help him stay in Number 10. Determining when to go to the country is a
crucial one.
The Chancellor’s plan will add £73 billion to the post-Covid economy by the spring of 2023