The fact is, no-one knows for sure how this new ‘Great Game’ will play out
A “RAPID disintegration” was how one veteran military analyst described the unfolding situation. Meanwhile, an op-ed headline in The Washington Post last week predicted “In Afghanistan a summer of pain awaits”.
As a journalist long associated with this country, it pains me to follow what is happening in Afghanistan right now. Since May, the Taliban have seized more than 50 districts and surrounded five provincial capitals.
In fact, so desperate has the military situation become because of such relentless gains that last week the Kabul government made an extraordinary appeal for all able- bodied Afghans to stand and fight the Taliban advance.
The “National Mobilisation”, as it has been called, seeks to arm all volunteers, but observers say the move will only resurrect those militias who owe allegiance to local commanders and warlords, many of them rivals who destroyed swathes of the capital in similar factional fighting in the 1990s that I witnessed myself as a reporter.
If ever the people of Afghanistan found themselves caught between a rock and hard place – and there has been no shortage of past occasions – then this is such a moment. The options are stark. Do nothing while the Taliban gain control of the country or arm militias that could lead to civil war.
The unfolding tragedy comes as this weekend Afghan president Ashraf Ghani visits Washington for talks with US President Joe Biden who has already issued the order for a withdrawal of American troops alongside others from the US-led coalition. Given that it’s too late for any rethink on US military support, the Afghans – not for the first time – are being abandoned to their own fate.
Also not for the first time in history other neighbouring countries and big powers are looking on wondering what they can salvage or how they can profit in terms of geopolitics or influence from Afghanistan’s vulnerability.
Back throughout most of the 19th century and the beginning of the 20th century during the political and diplomatic tussle between Britain and Russia over Afghanistan, they called it “The Great Game”. They also called it the “graveyard of empires” given the losses incurred but which never stopped outsiders committing themselves from wanting to control Afghanistan.
And so the talk of another great game has returned given that the looming power vacuum in the country has the potential to destabilise the entire region.
There’s no shortage of players lining up to take part after the US withdrawal. Iran, Pakistan, China, India, and Russia all have eyes on Afghanistan for various reasons. For China alone,
Afghanistan poses a potentially profitable corridor for its so-called Belt and Road Initiative of global infrastructure development.
For Pakistan and India, it will be a continuation of their old rivalry in which they use Afghanistan as a proxy battleground. For Iran and Russian, meanwhile, it’s a chance to gain diplomatic leverage over the US.
No-one knows for sure how this new Great Game will play out, not least given the threat now posed by the Taliban. Only one thing is certain: the Afghan people will once again be the losers.
There’s no shortage of players lining up to take part after the US withdrawal. Iran, Pakistan, China, India, and Russia all have eyes on Afghanistan