Niggling suits Putin down to the ground
You’ve got to hand it to Russian president Vladimir Putin – he knows how to keep the West guessing. Whatever one’s take on this autocratic leader, there’s no escaping the fact that he is currently having a merry dance diplomatically speaking at the expense of the US and Europe.
As an article in The Economist magazine these past few days wryly put it, “seldom in the field of human conflict did so much hang on the whims of one man”.
If US President Joe Biden’s interpretation on Friday of ongoing events is anything to go by then there is a “distinct possibility” Russia might invade Ukraine next month. But then again, even with the might of US intelligence assets at his disposal, it’s hard to see Biden as being nothing but out of step with Putin’s dance, instead tripping over himself as he did last week after suggesting that a “minor incursion” by Russia might split
Nato over how to respond.
If there is still room for diplomacy in the
Ukraine crisis, then
French president
Emmanuel Macron appears to be the man who continues to push for dialogue.
Germany, too, alongside France, has been going its own way, though on Friday Berlin seemed to be hardening its position and coming round to agreeing with Washington that the Russiafavoured Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline will not come to life if Russia invades Ukraine.
For the moment, though, all eyes are on Macron with even Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky saying that the French leader “is at the heart of efforts towards de-escalation.” To some extent there is nothing new here given that Macron, ever since coming to office, has tried to reset relations between France and Russia. But as French political scientist Dominique Moisi put it the other day, Macron is trying this reset “based on a mix of being open and being firm”.
For his part, Macron insists that his negotiations with Putin wouldn’t disturb ongoing diplomatic efforts from the US and Nato. But you can’t help feeling that the Biden administration doesn’t entirely see it that way.
In fact, it’s probably fair to say that some within Washington’s corridors of power appear to have been a little put out by France and Germany’s overtures during this crisis.
It’s a prevailing mood that was caught in the headline of an editorial in the Wall Street Journal last week that read: “Is Germany a Reliable American Ally? Nein.” For the moment, though, all this transatlantic niggling suits Putin down to the ground as he continues to keep everyone guessing as to his next move.