Trump’s tariff blamed as Irish whiskey sales catch up with Scotch in US
Spirited rise coincided with crippling 25% tariffs introduced by the US Government on Scotch malt whisky
DRAM wars have erupted over claims that Irish whiskey sales to America are close to outstripping Scotch for the time since the days of Prohibition a century ago.
The claim, made by the Irish Whiskey Association, came after it had seen its sales rise by 16.3 per cent in the US last year to a record $1.3 billion.
It compares to a rise in US sales of Scotch blended whisky of just 7.5%, and an increase in single malt of 14.4%.
Although Irish sales are still far below combined sales for Scotch blended whisky and single malt which total $2.59bn, the product’s growth in the US market has soared in recent years, with revenue booming from $74m in 2003 to £1.1bn in 2019, representing an increase of 1,335.5%.
Its remarkable rise has coincided with crippling 25% tariffs introduced by the US Government on Scotch malt whisky, as part of a bitter trade war retaliation against EU subsidies given to aircraft maker Airbus. In the year following the introduction of the tariff in 2019, US imports of Scotch whisky plummeted by 37%. That followed a decade of steady increases which had seen sales of whisky to the US soar by 97%.
‘Exceed by 2030’
THE rise in Irish whiskey sales in the US prompted Irish Whiskey Association director William Lavelle to claim they would exceed Scotch by 2030 – the first time in a century.
He said: “With more supply coming available of age-statement, superpremium brands – from both established and newer distilleries – it is clear that Irish whiskey is going to be an increasingly competitive player in the higher-end whiskey market, taking on Scotch single malts.”
Details of the increase in Irish whiskey on the US market emerged in a new report from the Distilled Spirits Council of the United States.
It raises concerns that damage done by the then-president Donald Trump’s introduction of the tariff could leave Scotch whisky producers fighting to recover lost ground.
As well as rising sales of Irish whiskey in the US, Scotch whisky exporters are also facing tough competition from other spirit producers: sales of American whiskey rose by 7%, and rye soared by 16.3%.
Scotch whisky’s share of the US market for all kinds of whisky has fallen from 13% in 2016 to 10% last year which has been attributed to the large growth of US whiskey (bourbon) in recent years.
Irish growth
THE Distilled Spirits Council has placed Irish whiskey as the third-fastest growing category spirit by revenue in the United States last year, behind premixed cocktails and tequila/mezcal.
While Scotch blended whisky achieved year-on-year volume growth of 0.7% and single malt 12%, the figure for Irish whiskey streaked ahead at 17%.
Irish whiskey sales in the USA have increased every year since 2002.
Since then, high-end premium and super-premium brands have grown by 1,112% and 9,102% respectively, raising concerns the Irish products are muscling in on single malt sales.
A spokesperson for the Scotch whisky Association said: “The US is an important market for Scotch whisky, which grew by 13% in 2021. The industry continues to rebound from the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and the 25% tariff on single malt which cost the industry around £30 million per month in exports.
“With tariffs now suspended, the Scotch whisky industry can focus on building back in the United States.”
Insiders in the Scotch whisky industry have dismissed suggestions the national drink is on the verge of being overtaken by Irish competition, pointing out that revenue for Scotch single malt and blended whisky combined in the US last year was $2.9bn – 96% more than the total for Irish whiskey.
“Given the report states that blended grew by 7.5% last year and single malt by 14.4%, Irish whiskey would have to average 12% growth per year for the next eight years to overtake Scotch whisky,” said one.
It is clear that Irish whiskey is going to be an increasingly competitive player in the higher-end whiskey market, taking on Scotch single malts
‘Touching distance’ HOWEVER, the Irish Whiskey Association says it stands by the claim that it is within touching distance of knocking Scotch off its pedestal.
A spokesperson for the Irish Whiskey Association said: “The IWA notes that according to numerous sources such as IWSR (International Wine & Spirits Research) and the Distilled Spirits Council of the US, Irish whiskey sales in the US have been and continue to grow at a much faster rate than the growth being experienced by all Scotch.
“On the basis of these trends, sales of Irish whiskey could actually overtake sales of all Scotch in the US in the current decade.”
Prohibition took effect in America in January 1920, when the production, importation, transportation and sale of alcoholic beverages was outlawed for the next 13 years.
However, the rule had little impact on Scotch whisky exports, which declined by just 3% during Prohibition as producers found new ways of “spiriting” their product across the US border.
High demand
WITH Scotch regarded as a far higher quality product than “moonshine” and American-produced spirits, demand remained high and sparked a form of “controlled bootlegging”.
Whisky was exported in huge quantities to Canada, the West Indies, and the Bahamas, which then experienced a 40,000% increase in Scotch imports.
Scotch was then loaded onto ships bound for America along with other European and Caribbean beverages. They unloaded their cargoes outside American waters onto other vessels which sped them past the US Coast Guard.
By the time Prohibition had ended, the United States accounted for more than 60% of Scotch whisky’s entire overseas market.