Russia’s so-called ‘Victory Day’ parade will tell its own story
DURING my recent time in Ukraine one date seemed to occupy the minds of many people I spoke with while in the country. That date was May 9, which falls tomorrow and will see Russia have its annual Victory Day parade.
For decades, the parade which commemorates the surrender of Nazi Germany in the Second World War, has been used by Russian leaders to flaunt their strength and demonstrate Russia’s military prowess.
But this, of course, is no ordinary year – far from it – as Russian forces find themselves engaged in the biggest land war in Europe since those distant days battling Nazi Germany.
To say that the Victory Day parade is a big deal in Russia would be a gross understatement. Speaking to CNN the other day, James Nixey, director of the RussiaEurasia programme at the UK-based defence think-tank Chatham House, summed it up thus: “May 9 is designed to show off to the home crowd, to intimidate the opposition, and to please the dictator of the time.”
Put simply, tomorrow’s parade matters not just for Russians but for ordinary Ukrainians as well as those Western political leaders who fear Russian president Vladimir Putin could use its symbolic significance to shift the dynamic of what to date has been a lumbering Russian military campaign since the invasion on February 24.
Few observers doubt that the Kremlin would have liked nothing better than a string of significant military gains in the run-up to tomorrow’s parade. The fall of Mariupol or major victories in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region would doubtless have pleased Putin.
The Ukrainians themselves, being all too aware of the propaganda boost such victories would have given Russia before tomorrow’s parade, have so far denied Putin such territorial prizes. But having been deprived of such victories, what then might we expect from the Russian leader tomorrow?
Declaration of war?
THE first thing worth watching for and which concerns Western officials is that Putin might use the occasion to formally declare war on Ukraine, something to date he has not done, instead describing the invasion as a “de-Nazification” process or “special military operation”.
A formal declaration of war, however, would be the toughest option, while using the opportunity to enact Russia’s mobilisation law might be preferable.
This would allow Putin to assemble more troops, extending conscription and shifting Russia’s economy onto a war footing in a week when the EU turned the screw on Moscow by announcing a raft of new sanctions, including a ban on Russian oil imports by the end of this year. Whatever Putin decides, there’s growing speculation that tomorrow’s parade could well be a slimmed-down version of past events. Last year, Putin used the day’s celebration to spread propaganda and to throw jabs at the West, denouncing “Russiaphobia” and vowing that his nation would defend its interests.
On display were more than 12,000 troops, 190 pieces of military hardware, plus a flypast by nearly 80 military aircraft.
But the reality of the battlefield inside Ukraine means Moscow might have to think again for tomorrow. If parade guides published so far are anything to go by then Russia looks to have scaled down this tremendously important event by almost 35 per cent.
Shrunken parade
AS several security analysts have noted, among them Craig Hooper of Forbes business magazine, the shift is marked.
“The shrunken parade reflects both the forces committed to the battlefield and large losses. The usual large contingent of Rosgvardia (National Guard) forces, after being mauled in Ukraine, are absent,” observed Hooper in the run up to tomorrow’s event,” he said.
“The Russian military knows that this year’s Victory Day parade is a sad and tawdry show, and Putin, if he shows up, will have to sit through it all. It will not be a pleasant experience.”
But it is precisely this potential for embarrassment that some say might drive Putin to new and even more aggressive levels of action.
Mobilisation, martial law, a formal declaration of war, a declaration and annexing of a “people’s republic” in the south-eastern Ukrainian city of Kherson – any of these are possibilities.
As the war stretches into another month, Ukrainians and Western nations alike are in suspense and will be watching closely for more tell-tale signs from Russia’s Victory Parade.