Abortion rights set to play big in midterms during major political and social upheaval
IF some of last week’s most significant polls are anything to go by then an overwhelming majority of Americans are in favour of preserving abortion rights.
The polls came in the wake of the startling publication last week by Politico magazine of a leaked initial draft majority opinion written by Justice Samuel Alito. It revealed that the Supreme Court has voted to strike down the landmark Roe v Wade decision that safeguarded protected women’s access to abortions.
“Roe was egregiously wrong from the start,” Alito wrote in the draft opinion labelled “first draft”, which was not expected to be finalised for at least several more weeks and could change in its final form
Following the leak, protesters rallied under the slogan “off our bodies” in cities across the US last week demanding abortion rights be protected.
“I just feel that we’re going backwards,” one of the abortion rights supporters, Jane Moore, told Reuters news agency of the prospect that Roe, which legalised abortion nationally nearly 50 years ago, could be struck down. “It actually breaks my heart and makes me angry at the same time.”
Abortion rights were already expected to be a major issue and dividing line in many of the congressional midterm election battles, but last week’s events have now only added to the political and social upheaval, months before voters go to the polls.
While many Republicans are still cautious that the court had not yet made a final decision, some were upbeat at the prospect that the nearly 50-year-old ruling could be overturned. “It’s about time!” Republican gubernatorial candidate for
Wisconsin, Lt Gov Rebecca Kleefisch, tweeted last week. For their part, Democrats reeling from the leaked draft opinion looked to capitalise on anger over the possibility – but it might not work out as they expect.
“Conventional wisdom right now is this helps Democrats because it will spur turnout, but it also could certainly spur turnout for base Republicans,” Glen Bolger, a Republican strategist, was cited by The New York times as saying. “Generally, most voters focus on the economy, for instance, and right now of course, inflation is dominant.”
Political analysts point to the governor’s races as where the impact of the issue might be most felt in the elections.
Without the court’s protection for abortion rights, states would be free to enforce their own restrictions or protections, giving a state’s executive an outsize role in determining whether abortion is legal.
While many Republicans are still cautious that the court had not yet made a final decision, some were upbeat at the prospect
But Democrats point to the latest polls which show that Americans strongly oppose completely overturning Roe v Wade. According to a recent Washington Post /ABC poll, 54 per cent of Americans think the Roe decision should be upheld while 28% believe it should be overturned.
Other polls appear to concur, leaving democrats believing that the US Supreme Court last week may have just given them an issue with which to turn around their flagging midterm election fortunes. November 8 will tell whether their belief is borne out. Either way, abortion rights will remain a divisive issue in US politics.