Is Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan a risk? Yes, but it delivers a strong message to China

HOUSE Speaker Nancy Pelosi has touched down at the centre of one of the most problematic diplomatic sites in the world with her visit on Tuesday in Taiwan. The California Democrat has prompted concern from the Biden administration that her visit may exacerbate the situation, writes

Michael O’Hanlon.

With all the buzz over Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan, however, we are failing to focus on an equally important issue: What she could usefully say and do while there to bolster US interests and set the tone for greater stability in the region. What’s the background on Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan?

First, a quick review of the historical context: Taiwan is an autonomous government of 23 million people more than 100 miles off the coast of China. Since 1949, it has been governed largely by the losing side in the Chinese civil war that brought the communists to power in Beijing. A democracy since 1996, it is a prosperous nation that makes the majority of the world’s best semiconductors. China claims it as a sovereign territory. The people of Taiwan have mixed views but clearly and strongly prefer their selfgovernance to any near-term merger with the mainland.

The United States shifted its diplomatic recognition of China to the mainland in 1979, because neither Beijing nor Taipei, the capital of Taiwan, would tolerate that we recognise them both.

Although it was probably a smart realpolitik decision, many Americans saw it as a betrayal of our non-communist partner and, as such, Congress passed the Taiwan Relations Act in 1979, which guaranteed we would take a special interest in that democracy’s wellbeing.

This does not mean we would necessarily defend it in time of war, however. Although President Joe Biden has said that we would do so unambiguously, official US policy still says it depends on the circumstances. Our preference, of course, is that the issue will be resolved by Beijing and Taipei peacefully. Today, Taiwan nearly has it all – autonomy, a strong military, prosperity, democracy and human rights. Admittedly, the people of Taiwan would like to be thought of as part of a country by the international community, and they really are not viewed that way.

To China, Taiwan is like Hawaii or Alaska. And it is not just the communist government but the preponderance of the Chinese people who feel that way.

Encouraging Taiwan to seek independence would be a red line that China has repeatedly warned would lead to war.

We need to play for time until the two Chinas can find some formulation, years or decades in the future, that they can both live with – perhaps some form of loose confederation or commonwealth.

If China did use lethal military force against Taiwan, our relationship can never be the same

We have no treaty commitment to Taiwan.

Some hypothetical Chinese attacks, like naval blockades, could be so difficult for us to counter that we would also want to think hard about specific options before going to war.

However, it is time to signal one thing clearly to Beijing – and in 2022, after

Russia’s attack on Ukraine, the message should resonate. If China did use lethal military force against Taiwan, our relationship can never be the same.

With these messages, to go along with her warmth and support, Pelosi can perhaps make her trip to Taiwan of net benefit to the goal of a stable and safe Western-Pacific region.