Sunlit uplands? Not quite, but there are some crumbs of comfort in a hard Brexit
Worried about the arrival of hard Brexit?
Quite right too. Indeed I suspect there will be many genuine cases of depression next spring, such is the strength of feeling in some quarters. Here, then are a few thoughts to comfort those dismayed about how
things have turned out (this includes me).
1. Brexit might not happen
This argument hardly needs much rehearsal. The prime minister’s Brexit deal has found few friends; there is no majority for hard Brexit in parliament; there may be a second referendum; that would be more likely to return a “Remain” verdict than the one in 2016; anything could happen in the next few weeks. How shocked would you be if we woke up, smelt the coffee and realised that May’s deal was so rotten we’d be better off where we are? The biggest U-turn in history? Better than the alternatives.
Even Arron Banks, the “bad boy of Brexit”, is edging this way. I quote his tweet: “I think the civil service have designed the deal to reflect that fact. Remain is a better choice than this capitulation... sadly.”
So, you know, hope springs eternal.
2. On 20 March 2019 the sun will still come up
The buses will run, the BBC will still be broadcasting and fresh water supplies should continue. In other words the apocalypse some are predicting is unlikely to transpire – though you would be wise to stock up (panic buy is the honest term) on certain essentials: loo roll, continental delicacies like salami, olives and some decent wines. You can read more in my guide to Brexit-proofing your life. Eventually, one would hope, the centripetal forces will make their presence felt and we will resume trading with continental Europe in the way we have since the dawn of time.
3. Britain’s decline will be genteel and gradual
As in the 1970s, when the UK was the “sick man of Europe” and only just allowed into the dynamic efficient giant that is the common market, the British may find economic growth frustratingly sluggish, but still positive. We will just have to get used to gradually getting relatively poor compared to our neighbours, until such time as, say, the Croatians and Slovaks overtake us in terms of income per head. But do we care about that? “Poor but happy” could be the new national motto. It’s the difference between having a massive heart attack or acquiring some slowly progressive debilitating illness that will take ages to get you. But life goes on and you make the best of it. If the global economy picks up that would help too (as it did after the 2016 vote). So, not all bad.
4. Brexit might work
I know, crazy idea, but that’s what economics is like. If it did work it would mean a massive amount of dislocation and unemployment as resources gradually shift from declining sectors of the economy and regions to the ones that find new ways to make a living. It would, as Jacob Rees-Mogg admits, take many years, perhaps half a century. It will be children as yet unborn who will get the benefit – Brexit is for the young. Maybe.
5. Brexit would have happened sooner or later
Even Europhiles have their limits. Some, anyhow. Such is the institutional impetus towards integration from the EU Commission and the likes of President Macron and, more hesitantly, Chancellor Merkel and her party, the British would sooner or later find themselves at what you might term “breaking point”. A European Army? Pressure to join the euro (despite the opt-out)? A European fiscal union and finance minister? A common migration policy? Even if you like the sound of any or all of those you must surely accept that they’d not go down that well amongst the great British public. On that reading Brexit is an historical inevitability.
6. Your fellow citizens are deluded racists who read the Sun and the Mail, fetishise two World Wars (and one World Cup) – get used to it
Brexit might be “the moment” when you simply have to come to terms that the folk you share this sceptred isle with aren’t as clever/open-minded/tolerant/humane/woke/whatever as you are. But you’re lumbered with them. Even the shift in opinion since 2016 hasn’t been that dramatic, and, while Remain would probably win now, and a Final Say is the right thing to do, a solid quarter to a third of your fellow citizens just want out of the EU whatever the cost, and would probably personally volunteer to bomb Germany. Worth acknowledging if nothing else.
7. It’s not all about money
Some Brexiteers believe, perfectly sincerely, that “sovereignty” and “taking back control” are such precious things and so closely linked to British democracy and sense of identity that it really doesn’t matter if the City of London and Canary Wharf are turned into wastelands, rural Britain returns to nature and every car factory in the country shuts down. Grasp that and you will find post-Brexit life much easier to comprehend.
8. It will make Britain more entertaining
Once we can just make up our own laws about anything, we can do whatever cranky stuff we want, which may or may not have been banned by the EU. We can bring back feet and yards; the shilling and the groat; we can let Aussies and Kenyans through customs ahead of Lithuanians and Italians; we can put huge taxes on German cars; we can abolish our labour laws; we could nationalise and subsidise vast tracts of the economy to build a socialist New Jerusalem. Just think of the fun the likes of Jeremy Corbyn or Michael Gove could have with the entire Lego set of the UK at their disposal.
Fun, no?
9. We can turn Britain into a giant version of the middle aisle at Lidl
If the Americans have just processed far too many of their famous chlorinated chickens – send ‘em our way. If the Chinese have erred again and churned out too much steel – we can make good use of that. A bumper South African fruit harvest or an especially good year for the New Zealand dairy industry means treats for every British dinner table. Global Britain in action.
10. It’ll make Britain more ‘distinctive’ and eccentric
Laws unique to the UK mean new customs and traditions that are only seen in the UK could evolve, just like strange new species do on remote islands such as the Galapagos.
Alternatively, the country, fully opened to world trading, could become the most cosmopolitan nation on earth, a melting pot of foods, consumer goods and ideas from every corner of God’s green earth. If we restricted immigration so much that there was a shortage of labour at any price, we might actually have to turn to robotics and AI to pick the fruit, drive the cabs and lorries, clean the hotel rooms and staff the care homes – just as the Japanese have had to try, suffering from similar demographic pressures. Just imagine the Great Global Robotic Britain of 2050, a leisure hive where no one need worry about making a living.
That’s cheered you up, hasn’t it?