Party splits can often be a blessing for British politics
The decision of eight MPs to leave Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party is no surprise, but that makes it no less significant. Indeed, it may be the first wave of several, with similar splits on the Conservative side also likely.
As someone who was a foot soldier in the last Labour civil war, leading to the formation of the SDP, I can see both the compulsions behind the split and the dangers it presents.
There are several factors behind the Labour split. Brexit looms large, with the Labour leadership’s support and their obstruction of attempts to get the party behind a people’s vote. Antisemitism is another. And,
not to be forgotten, the unwillingness of Corbyn to condemn Russian involvement in the Skripal poisoning and his long-held antipathy to western collective defence.
There has, of course, been huge antipathy for the Labour leader and his entourage as the vast bulk of the parliamentary party disagree with them. The division was eased as a result of Corbyn’s good showing at the last general election, but Brexit has reopened it.
The remaining Labour MPs, who share the rebels’ agenda but have decided to stay put, will argue that a Labour split can only help the Conservatives at a time when the Tories themselves are internally divided over Brexit. Both historical precedent and the brutal mechanisms of first past the post do not offer real encouragement to breakaway groups that are broadly based politically and have strong constituency roots.
However, I believe that the Conservatives cannot be far behind. We know that Brexit has opened up bitter divisions between the ERG/Ukip wing of the Conservative Party and what is left of the “one nation” modernising, Cameron tradition.
The immediate priority is to collaborate on Brexit where there is a disastrous no deal to be seen off
The fact that the Tory party now has its own militant tendency, seeking to undermine and unseat those who lack sufficient Brexit zeal, may make their divisions more transparent.
If there is a Conservative breakaway, then we will be talking about a genuinely new and potentially powerful centrist grouping involving my own party. But if this is merely a Labour breakaway, and small, the prospect is less rosy.
My own party has played, and will continue to play, an important role, and should not be discounted by those who simply want something new. We have a substantial infrastructure of 100,000 members and around 2,000 councillors with a concentration of strong support in some areas.
There is a revival of the party taking place, at local government level, as it did during the big upsurge of support in the 1990s and 2000s. I expect more evidence of this resurgence this May, just as we saw last year.
Meantime, I have offered a hand of friendship to the new Independent Group and would welcome others – Labour and Conservatives – who also share our values. There will be a need for collaborative work in parliament and also on the ground.
There is no question of a “new centrist party” or of the rebels being swallowed up in my party or the Lib Dems being swallowed up by them. I see the way forward as a collaborative arrangement, a confederation of groups who have a lot in common but wish to maintain their identity.
The immediate priority is to collaborate on Brexit where there is a disastrous no deal to be seen off and the continuing hope of a people’s vote as the best way to end the current uncertainty. And beyond that is the need to develop a clear prospectus: ideas which those from liberal or social democratic traditions can promote together to fight the dangerous populism of the left and right.