Police leader warns UK set for ‘summer of discontent’
The UK is facing a “summer of discontent” amid Black Lives Matter protests, a far-right backlash, the coronavirus lockdown, Brexit and a severe economic downturn, a senior police officer has said. The president of the Police Superintendents’ Association (PSA) warned: “There are so many issues where so many have opposing views that there’s a risk of a sustained level of agitation.”
Chief Superintendent Paul Griffiths told The Independent that tensions were being exacerbated by “frustration” over Covid-19 restrictions on gatherings and leisure, following months of lockdown that may have worsened mental health issues.
“There are many factors, but I do see a summer of discontent coming through,” he said. “We’re in really difficult economic times. As the restrictions start easing, furlough opportunities start changing, and there’s
a risk of people suffering economically. That can sometimes lead to protests, so there’s a lot going on in our society at the moment.”
Ch Supt Griffiths predicted that tensions over Brexit could flare up again, as well as “counter-narratives” against Black Lives Matter by right-wing groups.
“There’s a real moment in time where this, along with social injustice issues and racial discrimination, could come together to create further problems,” he said.
Severe disorder has so far been avoided, but clashes have erupted between a minority of protesters and police at Black Lives Matter protests and counter-demonstrations by statue “defenders”. According to police figures, more than 220,000 people have joined demonstrations since the killing of George Floyd in the US, which reignited a global debate about policing and wider institutional racism.
Hundreds of protesters have been arrested and rallies look set to continue despite pleas from ministers and police. The government has ruled out attempting to stop or shut down demonstrations, despite coronavirus laws making gatherings of more than six people illegal. Martin Hewitt, chair of the National Police Chiefs’ Council (NPCC), previously suggested that the decision had been taken in part to avoid a violent backlash and serious unrest.
Ch Supt Griffiths said commanders were “constantly balancing the fact that whatever action they could take has a counter and opposite reaction”.
“The volatility of a crowd can change very quickly and sometimes things we do or don’t do in trying to police a crowd can create problems,” he added. “People will want to voice their views, and if protests were banned they may do it anyway, so it’s better to engage and facilitate protest.”
He suggested that attendance at street protests may have been bolstered by a record-breaking spell of dry and sunny weather, as well as coronavirus and its impact on jobs and leisure leaving people with more free time.
“But I don’t want to distract from core issues of social justice, discrimination and bias that we need to address,” the officer added. “Everybody has got a right to protest. It’s a fundamental part of our liberal democracy and it’s something that we try to facilitate through all our means as a police service.”
While the early part of the coronavirus lockdown saw several small protests by conspiracy theorists and groups opposing public health measures, the first large demonstrations were sparked by the killing of Floyd in Minneapolis on 25 May. His death has sparked fresh scrutiny of British policing, including racial disparity in the use of force, stop and search, Tasers, coronavirus fines and custody deaths.
On Thursday, police leaders announced a “plan of action” to address racial inequalities in the criminal justice system, and the under-representation of black and minority ethnic police officers. It is expected to be completed in July and groups from outside of policing, including anti-racism and human rights organisations, will be able to take part in a consultation. The announcement came a day after a former police officer told MPs that racism was “alive and kicking” in British policing.
Ch Supt Griffiths said there was a “willingness to learn and engage”, admitting: “We don’t always get things right, whether it’s an operational issue where we’ve made some tactical decisions or deeper underlying issues that we’re trying to resolve.”
Following a meeting of members of black and minority ethnic PSA members to discuss action, he said the police service would work to “strengthen trust and confidence from all communities”.
Ch Supt Griffiths said that while officers were increasing internal scrutiny, demand was growing as lockdown restrictions ease, crime increases and the government changes coronavirus laws.
“There’s no doubt there’s significant challenges with enforceability of all the regulations together, but that’s our job,” he added. “We are watching like the rest of society to see how the restrictions are going to be lifted, then predict what the effect is and make sure we’re resourced and positioned accordingly.”
Ministers have changed the original Health Protection Regulations in England four times, and introduced two new sets of laws on travel restrictions and face masks that must all be enforced by police.
At the same time, criminal offences have started to pick up as restrictions have eased, and there has been an 8 per cent year-on-year increase in domestic abuse incidents. Police and charities fear that violence increased inside homes during the most intense period of the lockdown, and that victims may only now be seeking help.
Assaults on emergency service workers also rose by a quarter, including people claiming to have coronavirus and coughing, and protesters attacking police at recent demonstrations.
Provisional data shows that overall crime recorded by police in England and Wales fell by 18 per cent in the month to 7 June, compared with the same period last year.
“As normality returns, a lot of crime trends and public incidents return,” Ch Supt Griffiths said. “We’ve got a very challenging period over the summer to navigate our way through a health emergency, an economic emergency and some underlying social issues.”