Normality cannot resume until the public feels safe
As political slogans go, “It’ll all be over by Christmas” has an unhappy heritage. Ever bullish, Boris Johnson didn’t quite put it that way, but he did make it abundantly clear that he sincerely hopes and wants a “return to normality, possibly in time for Christmas”, at least in England. The devolved administrations in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are more cautious about such aims, even though they have had proportionately more success in driving coronavirus out of circulation, and are in a better position to ease the restrictions.
Over the next few months there will be some gradual but transformative relaxations, some piloted at first, others phased, covering a return to work, public transport, the opening of theatres and indoor venues, sports stadiums, gyms, universities and, as previously announced, schools. There is also the possibility of social distancing being abolished in some circumstances.
Taken together, the plans represent a significant step forward for individual freedoms and the economy. Yet they contain in them undeniable risks, all the more so as the colder weather approaches and more people will be tempted to huddle together indoors. Potential super-spreading events such as Premiership football matches will take place just as those attending them return to the old workplaces and their children start the autumn term at school or travel far to embark on a degree course. Although these relaxations are some distance in the future, the current flat trend in infections in England is perhaps too high a base from which to take these risks. Giving evidence in parliament yesterday the experts sounded less than enthusiastic about the dangers to public health.
The giveaway, a tacit acknowledgement of the potential disaster, is the extra £3bn to be devoted to the NHS over the winter, to help keep the emergency Nightingale hospitals open and make sure the annual flu epidemic doesn’t disrupt the treatment of coronavirus patients. Yet more stratospheric claims for a working test and trace system were made by the prime minister and Baroness (Dido) Harding, including (again) an app. The public can be excused for scepticism about the delivery of such plans.
Mr Johnson is on record as being all in favour of cake and eating cake, and he is up to some more of his old tricks. He wants to be the face of better times and joyful announcements about nights out, kids meeting granny and going to the cricket – but he is careful to ensure that he evades any responsibility if things get awkward or go wrong.
Thus, after decades of centralisation and contempt from Whitehall, local authorities are to be granted new powers to enforce closure of businesses, schools and other premises, and will have to cope with the blame. Employers are now to be responsible for getting staff back into work – not the government. The irony is that many managements have now been converted to the cause of working from home, a look forward to cutting their rent bills by moving to smaller offices. If Mr Johnson and Rishi Sunak are hoping for a rapid return to the old ways of commuting, they will be disappointed.
As Sir Keir Starmer pointed out, the single biggest factor in preventing a return to something closer to the old normal is confidence, specifically confidence that public transport, workplaces and venues will be safe to visit. That in turn depends crucially on getting the virus much more clearly under control in the coming weeks. The politicians and even the experts can argue that the risks are worth running, but the public has the right to exercise its own judgement. The signs are that confidence is not back to something like normality, and therefore life will not be back to normal for Christmas.