Clear government advice will be crucial this winter

Covid-19 infections are rising across much of Europe as well as the UK, and while deaths mercifully remain very much lower than during the spring, it would be realistic to expect that they too will rise in the weeks ahead.

This is what the medical profession fears when it comes to a coronavirus second wave – and its fears should be taken very seriously indeed. The government – and Boris Johnson of course – is well aware of this, hence the growing list of countries to which travel is advised only in essential cases, and the six-person rule for

meetings that came into force yesterday.

It is rightly anxious to avoid the mistakes it made in the early weeks of the pandemic, when it delayed imposing restrictions and thereby almost certainly failed to save lives.

Yet there is confusion. All governments in liberal democracies have to work by persuading people to comply with the rules they seek to impose, as well as occasionally having to force compliance by using the law. Persuasion requires confidence that the restrictions are well-timed, proportionate and necessary. The government is weak on all three counts.

The timing of imposing any curb on people’s liberties is bound to be difficult. But the government has given the impression of bringing in restrictions in ways designed to make compliance more difficult than it need be. The most glaring example of that has been the requirement of people arriving from overseas countries on the restrictive list to self-quarantine for 14 days.

These are imposed on arrivals after 4am on Saturdays. Yet the normal transfer day for foreign holidays is Saturday. Were the timing moved by 24 hours to Sunday, tens of thousands of people would not have their holidays wrecked.

A similar poor decision over timing – but the other way round – has probably occurred over the introduction of the six-person rule. The basic aim was to avoid large gatherings where people would spread the virus. By starting on a Monday – with the new rules published late on Sunday – the government guaranteed that there would be a weekend of serious partying. We will have to wait a few weeks to know whether there will have been a sudden burst of new infections as a result. If there is, then the timing of the new restrictions will be to blame.

Restrictions must be proportionate. As we argued in our editorial on Sunday, it makes little sense to ban most gatherings of more than six people indoors or outdoors when the evidence is that outdoor meets carry little risk. Wales has adopted the more sensible approach, where outdoor meetings of up to 30 people are permitted.

We also noted that it would have made more sense to exclude children under 12 from the six-person rule, as is the case in Scotland. Children, mercifully, do not suffer seriously from the virus. It is possible they may be carriers but that is an argument for shielding the vulnerable. Besides, where is the logic for requiring children to mingle together at school all week but not allow them to have their classmates home for a birthday party at the weekend?

Further restrictions will be almost certainly necessary in the weeks ahead. Yet once again the government’s performance has been weak. It is probably necessary to have the present set of restrictions on arrivals at airports. But were there to be effective testing for travellers, and better track and tracing more generally, the need for the present rather arbitrary rules would be weaker. We could be much cleverer at combating the virus than we currently seem to be.

There is the nub of the problem. No one should expect perfection from any government, and there are parts of this one’s performance that have been competent: the support for the developers of vaccines, the general support for business from the Treasury, and in a separate category as it is not part of the government, the work of the Bank of England in keeping the financial system functioning.

The National Health Service has been stretched but not overwhelmed. However, the response to the crisis in terms of the advice to the public and the restrictions on behaviour has been weak. Unsurprisingly public confidence in this government is weak too.

The autumn will be a difficult time for everyone as a second wave almost certainly unfolds. The government must show it has learnt from its experiences in the spring and summer. There are still huge uncertainties,

but it – and we – are not flying completely blind.

The reasonable thing to ask of government is that it reaches its decisions in a rational and orderly way – and then communicates them clearly. If it can do that it will get support. If it fails, the autumn will be very difficult indeed.