More Covid patients now in hospital than in March
Hospitals in England now have more coronavirus patients than they did when lockdown restrictions were first announced in March, a senior NHS official has revealed.
As admissions rise, the numbers of Covid-19 patients in the northwest could, within four weeks, top the levels seen during the peak of the first wave in the spring.
The medical director of NHS England, Prof Stephen Powis, said that without additional measures to control the spread of the disease, deaths would rise to a level “too great to bear”.
Speaking at a televised Downing Street briefing, Prof Powis dismissed as “wishful thinking” claims that elderly and vulnerable people could be shielded from the rising rates of infection among the younger population.
Details of the surge in infections were revealed as NHS Nightingale Hospitals in Manchester, Sunderland and Harrogate were asked to mobilise in preparation for an emerging second wave of the coronavirus in England.
Prof Powis said the hospitals, which were built during the initial stages of the pandemic, are getting ready to accept new patients with Covid-19. The sites could also be used to provide extra capacity to maintain health services for people without the coronavirus.
Prof Powis said that there would also be increased testing of health staff and hospital patients in hotspot areas: “To protect our staff and our patients, we will be introducing – with tests provided by the test and trace service – regular testing for staff in these high-risk areas, even when they don’t have symptoms. This will help us keep staff and patients in those hospitals as safe as possible.”
In the week to 6 October, 1,015 people with Covid-19 were admitted to hospitals in the northwest, according to the latest data. In Yorkshire and the northeast, 809 people were taken to hospital with the disease over the same period.
England’s deputy chief medical officer, Professor Jonathan Van-Tam, said that while cases are rising fastest in the north, it is of “concern” that they are “heating up” in more parts of the country compared with a week ago.
Prof Van-Tam said other regions are now following the pattern in the northwest, where the virus moved through the age bands, having spiked first among young people.
“There is the spread from those younger age groups into the 60-plus age group in the northwest and the northeast, and there are rates of change in the same places but also extending a little further south,” he said. “And this is again of significant concern, because of course the elderly suffer a much worse course with Covid-19. They are admitted to hospital for longer periods, and they are more difficult to save.”
Prof Van-Tam, said that increased hospital admissions and deaths were now “baked in” because of sharp rises in infections over the past weeks. He said that hospitalisations lag behind infections by about three weeks and deaths occur some time after that, because of the way the disease develops.
“The hospital admissions we have now actually relate to a time when there fewer cases of Covid-19,” he said. “Already, with the cases that we know about, we have baked in additional hospital admissions and sadly we also have baked in additional deaths that are now consequent upon infections that have already happened.”
Prof Powis said: “It is clear that hospital admissions are rising fastest in those areas of the country where infection rates are highest, particularly the northwest. In the over-65s – particularly the over-85s – we are seeing steep rises in the numbers of people being admitted to hospital, so the claim that the elderly can somehow be fenced off from risk is wishful thinking.”
With no cure or vaccine yet available for Covid-19, Prof Powis said: “Sadly, as the number of those infected increases, then so will the number of people who die, and that’s why the government is looking at what other measures could be introduced in the areas where infection is rising the most.
“As the secretary of state for health has said, if we do not take measures to control the spread of the virus the death toll will be too great to bear.”
He cautioned that it would take “a number of weeks” before the benefit of any additional measures put in place this week are seen in hospital admissions. He also said that he did not want to have to delay operations by diverting staff to battle Covid-19 for a second time.
“Where we can, we don’t want this to happen again this time, but that depends on all of us doing what needs to be done to contain this virus in the community,” he said.
He said the country was in a better position than in March and April. “Clearly we have learnt many things from that first wave, we have learnt better treatments for patients, and dexamethasone ... we learnt that that reduces deaths.”
But he warned: “R is above one, that means that infections will continue to rise, and as infections continue to rise, then hospital admissions and impact on health services continue to rise.”