No time for complacency, warn top medical advisers
Easing restrictions risks creating a ‘big surge’ in infections
Relaxing restrictions before vulnerable priority groups are vaccinated against Covid-19 would be “premature” and risks another surge of cases, government advisers have warned.
As the NHS began administering the first jabs across the UK, professor Chris Whitty suggested that three to four vaccines could be available in the fight against coronavirus by the middle of 2021. Despite the optimism over vaccines, however, the chief medical officer added it should not give people cause to relax in
the short term, as he urged the British public to stick with “self-discipline” in the immediate weeks and months.
“We’re heading into spring 2021 in a much better shape than we were three or four months ago,” he told MPs. “The first response would be to say ‘well that’s it, it’s done’ – that would be disastrous, because the actually the wave would come back incredibly quickly. We are all very nervous about January and February, which is the highest risk period for the NHS in particular, March as well.”
Asked during a Commons committee when lockdowns and restrictions would no longer be needed, Professor Whitty said the rollout of the vaccine will reduce the mortality rate “very substantially” with the most vulnerable being prioritised.
“Then it’ll start to reduce the number of people who go into hospital and have severe disease, very substantially,” he said. “At a certain point society, through political leaders, through elected ministers, and through parliament will say this level of risk is a level of risk that we think is appropriate to tolerate. At a certain point you say actually the risk is low enough that we can largely do away with certainly the most onerous things that we have to deal with. This will happen incrementally … this will be a gradual retreat from that.”
However, the chief medical officer added: “We’re not there yet. For the next three months, we will not have sufficient protection. We’re going through the most difficult time of the year for respiratory infections and the most difficult time of the year for the NHS. So the idea we can suddenly stop now because the vaccine is here that would be really premature – it’s like someone giving up a marathon race at mile 16. It would be absolutely the wrong thing to do.”
Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific officer, also echoed the comments, warning there was a risk of the public thinking the pandemic is “all over” due to the Covid-19 vaccine being rolled out.
He told the committee: “We have a very important light at the end of the tunnel with vaccines. We’ve got a lot to do to roll out the vaccines, we’ve got a lot to do to make sure the vulnerable are protected. We’re a long way off yet knowing how we can move it to the rest of the population, that’s dependent on things like does the AZ [AstraZeneca/Oxford] vaccine get approved. It’s not the time to suddenly say we relax everything and, if that happens, we will have a big surge.”
Following the decision last week of the medicines agency to give the green light to the Pfizer/BioNTech jab, Professor Whitty also told MPs he expected to have a “portfolio” of three or four vaccines the government could deploy by the middle of 2021.
The Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) is currently analysing the data from trials of other vaccines, including ones developed by Moderna and Oxford/AstraZeneca, which have both published efficacy results. While praising the work of the scientists, Dr June Raine, chief executive of the body, said she was not able to give a “firm date” on when the review of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine would be completed.
“The data packages for the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine have been arriving, we do expect a further package in the coming days,” she told the Commons Science and Technology and Health and Social Care committees. I would not be able to give the committees a firm date, because the review is clearly a very active review. There will be questions and deliberations that we will be pursuing in exactly the same way as we have done for Pfizer/BioNTech. So, not able to give a firm date, but to assure the committees that work is proceeding intensively and with great scientific rigour.”