Ditching the amber list is a start but the travel industry is still in for a very long haul
The travel industry may have suffered more through the pandemic than even bombed-out sectors such as hospitality or retail. IATA, the international airline trade body, put its part of the industry’s losses at a staggering $126bn (£91bn) last year.
Tour operators, hoteliers and others will have similarly sad stories to tell.
Of late, however, there has been the suggestion of optimism in the air. It can be seen in some of the statements to the stock exchange issued by the sector’s quoted contingent, in the press releases put out by PR people, in the private musings of executives.
How much of this is justified is open to question. IATA’s estimate for 2021 is that its members’ collective losses will come in at $47bn, which, yes, is a marked improvement over the previous year, but it still represents an enormous deficit. Most airlines’ results will be spattered with red ink for the second year in a row. And they won’t be alone.
The government did the industry a good turn with its decision to abandon the idea of an “amber watchlist” of countries at risk of moving up to red with the necessarily harsh restrictions that come with the latter.
The move was broadly welcomed. The industry, and a few Tory MPs, had feared that the creation of yet another category would only add to the considerable confusion that already exists and create a further impediment to travel when there are plenty enough of those already.
Tim Alderslade, chief executive of Airlines UK, described it as “a victory for common sense”. He, along with other airline and travel CEOs, are now hoping their recent letter to the government calling for the addition of more green list countries this week will be heeded. “The world has changed since the inception of the traffic light system, and ‘green status’ should increasingly become a default,” it opined.
The government certainly seems to be moving in that direction not least because the prime minister needs to find some way of boosting his flagging popularity and scents this is a way to do so. But is this wise?
The desires of a ravaged industry to get moving again are entirely understandable. The letter talks up the UK’s “vaccine
wall” and points to progress in other countries, too. But what we don’t know is how effectively a virus with a talent for destructive mutation will be able to knock bricks out of it.
The wall was built with ready-made cracks because, obviously, no vaccine is 100 per cent effective.
Even if the industry’s optimism proves justified, and the wall holds, and other countries’ programmes continue to make progress, travelling in the pandemic is still going to require the ability to roll with the punches of rapidly changing circumstances and the quixotic whims of both domestic and overseas politicians.
If you want summer sun, you’d better be prepared to work for it. Having the analytical skills of a professional gambler before you set out wouldn’t hurt. Holidays this summer aren’t as carefree as they used to be. They can’t be.
This is the challenge the industry faces. It will continue to do so, perhaps into the winter sun and skiing seasons, even if the green list is expanded. People care deeply about their holidays, but some care more deeply than others. Some will continue to prefer the option of a staycation until the country is through the tunnel not just maybe in sight of its end. With an emphasis on the maybe.
Paddling at home is a lot easier than taking a swim overseas, and that will remain the case regardless of what the government does, notwithstanding the unsightly profiteering parts of the domestic industry have engaged in.
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