Trump’s grip on his party has begun to loosen

As in 2020, the future of the United States, at least in part, depends on the electoral mood in just a few states with exceptionally close contests. While the House of Representatives may slip into Republican hands, and by a smaller margin than expected, the Senate may yet be retained in Democrat control. This is a further surprise.

Too close to call senatorial elections in Nevada, Wisconsin, Arizona – and, most poignantly, Georgia – may well determine the marginally dominant party in the Senate, and with it the ability of President Biden to do very much in his remaining term in office. The fact that he and his party have outperformed polls and pundits – and the comparable first-term performances for Bill Clinton in 1994 and Barack Obama in 2010 – will in any case be a boost to morale for Mr Biden and the Democrats, and quite possibly of much greater import.

If, as seems near certain, the Georgia contest goes to a further run-off election on 6 December, and the other seats don’t result in a majority for either party, then America and the world will have to await its fate for somewhat longer – a sort of VAR version of elections. The people of Georgia (again, as in 2021)

will have to endure weeks of intense bombardment of election propaganda and a series of mass rallies attended by presidents past and present, as well as the world’s media taking an unusual interest in the views of the good people of Atlanta, Augusta and Athens.

So we wait. But a few things have already become clear as these midterm campaigns have progressed. The obvious fact is that the political dominance of Donald Trump is waning the further his presidency recedes into history, if not infamy. A successful run in 2024, or indeed any run at all, is less likely than it was a few days ago.

To the surprise of some, moderate Republicans who managed to put some distance between themselves and Mr Trump fared relatively well. Mr Trump’s sometimes eccentric picks for electoral office sometimes flopped badly. Most strikingly, Ron DeSantis had an extremely good night in Florida, and with it a formidable claim to push for his party’s nomination for next time.

Mr Trump’s base remains strong and vocal, and personal – but he is losing his grip a little. If his base does force his nomination through, then he may well lead his party to defeat again in November 2024. Depressingly (and ironically) the only way Mr Trump might make his comeback is if any of the election deniers in swing states abuse their powers as governor or secretary of state to steal the election for him.

Yet there are also pressing questions on the Democrat side. President Biden didn’t have a brilliant campaign – and his party’s relatively strong showing in an age of inflation had more to do with the abortion issue and sheer morbid fear of what Mr Trump might do given some political momentum.

It is probably true that Mr Trump is the only Republican candidate Mr Biden could beat in 2024 – and that’s not a comfortable position for the Democrats either, given the rise of Mr DeSantis and other post-Trump rivals.

The Democrats have some important decisions to make about the ticket in 2024, and what role, if any, Mr Biden and his vice

president Kamala Harris will play. It’s embarrassing for them that Mr Obama cuts such a charismatic figure on the stage, and will have done his bit to get the Democrat vote out in Wisconsin and elsewhere.

So the Maga era may be slowly, noisily, drawing to a close. America has peered over the brink, wobbled a little, and mostly pulled back. As far as can be judged, Americans do not on the whole relish a return to the chaotic, reckless and increasingly violent atmosphere of the Trump presidency, one that culminated in an attempted insurrection on 6 January last year.

Mr Trump likely leaves a permanent legacy of conspiracy theories (which he knows to be untrue) and a fractured democracy where voting itself is suppressed and undermined. But America is recovering from its shocks. President Biden should be commended for trying to heal the wounds, but one question is pressing: who’s next?

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