US democracy has survived, so what does the future hold?

When the United States went to vote this week, the prevailing assumptions on this side of the Atlantic tended to mirror the pessimism among the Democratic elite over there. First, there was an expectation that the Republicans would make serious gains, as the opposition party usually does in the midterm elections during a president’s first term, and because Joe Biden seemed hardly to have covered himself in glory.

Second, it was assumed that the complexion of the victorious Republicans would skew US congressional politics in a more right-wing, isolationist direction – which the UK, like most US allies, would regard as a bad thing. And third, it was expected that Republican gains would provide Donald Trump with a springboard for a presidential run in 2024. Trump himself appeared to believe that, too, promising what he called a “very big announcement” next week.

All this, it was not hard to see, had the potential to complicate US relations across the rest of the Western world.

A president with impeccable Atlanticist credentials would instantly become a lame duck. Any congressional turn towards isolationism could call into question the continuation of US military and economic help for Ukraine, which far outweighs anything the UK and the EU have provided. What is more, US politics might be rendered either deadlocked or unstable (and probably both) until the presidential election in 2024, at a time when cast-iron Western unity is called for.

While such considerations would affect US foreign policy in general, they could affect relations with the UK more than most. That is, in part, because the UK and the US have been such powerful cheerleaders for Ukraine that any diminution in US enthusiasm could leave the UK exposed. But it is more because, since Boris Johnson “got Brexit done”, the United States has loomed larger in this country’s foreign policy firmament than it did before, even as the EU slid down the list of priorities.

Perhaps the only reason that the risks to the UK of the expected US midterm results did not attract more foreboding among the British was the confused state of our politics for much of the summer and autumn. It has also to be said that UK foreign policy was – and is – in something of a state of flux, with the Integrated Review, which produced the blueprint for “Global Britain”, having been sent back for revision following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

In the end, though, the worst did not happen. Within hours of the polls closing, it was clear that pretty much all the pre

election assumptions had been wrong – with the possible halfexception of Trump’s ambitions. We will see whether he turns up as planned for his speech on Tuesday – and, if he does, what it contains.

So, why were the forecasts wrong? One reason, aside from what would appear to be the increasing fallibility of pollsters, was surely the extent to which despair about the state of US politics is – or was – shared by liberals on both sides of the Atlantic. It generated not only alarmist rhetoric about this being an election that would make or break US democracy, but panicked anticipation of an imminent comeback by Trump. The fact is that anti-Trumpists everywhere believed the worst of American politics and US voters.

As many of those same anti-Trumpists have subsequently observed (with sighs of relief), US voters turned out to be less open to Trump’s persuasion than expected, and more liberal (on various issues, including abortion rights), and this in turn spurred the best result for the Democrats in any midterm elections for 20 years. So lesson one might be never to write off US democracy. There is, and never was, any danger of a rerun of the American civil war.

US-UK relations may not run any more smoothly than they might otherwise have done. Problems and tensions will still be there, even if some of them may be different from those that were forecast

These midterm elections passed off peacefully and without major challenge. Today’s culture wars pale beside the unrest of the 1960s, and the tied election of 2000 represented a much bigger threat to the integrity of US elections than the events of 6 January last year, which resulted more from a failure of security

at the Capitol than from any attempt by the defeated Trump to stage a coup. In every case, anyway, the constitution survived.

But there is a lesson two, which is that what looks like a win, in whatever sense, can be deceptive. The midterm results may be a vindication of US democracy, but they may not make US-UK relations run any more smoothly than they might otherwise have done. Problems and tensions will still be there, even if some of them may be different from those that were forecast.

There were signs even before the elections that the cost of supporting Ukraine might be starting to raise questions in Washington, and not just among Trumpist Republicans. Some 30 Democratic members of the House of Representatives last month sent a letter to Biden calling for direct talks with Russia and a negotiated end to the war. The letter was subsequently withdrawn in the cause of pre-election party unity, but that strand of opinion has not gone away.

Pressure on Biden for a shift in Ukraine policy might now be greater had the Republicans, and specifically the Trumpists, won more seats in the election. But if those calling for talks start to make common cause, and if – as some signs indicate – the US is already exploring the possibility of talks, where might that leave the UK, as the most vocal European enthusiast for victory in Ukraine? Possibly with an embarrassing policy shift on its hands, and a disappointed President Zelensky in Kyiv.

It is not yet entirely clear how much of a lame duck President Biden will be. That depends partly on whether the majority tips to the Republicans in the Senate. But the Democrats’ betterthan-expected performance gives Biden a breathing space, and may also spare him pressure from his own side – for the moment, at least – to keep his professed hopes of running for a second term alive.

The idea that he may run again, however, creates new uncertainties. The first point to be made is that the UK has not had a trouble-free relationship with Biden. He has generally seen the EU as the chief player in Europe – and where the UK could once act as a bridge to Brussels, that is now over. There has also

been pressure on London from the Biden administration to do nothing that might jeopardise peace in Northern Ireland. Biden has not been as helpful an ally in the White House as the UK may have hoped.

Another point is that there are now more options for 2024 than there would have been had the Democrats lost badly. Biden could run again, and win. Biden could run again, and lose – to Trump. Biden could decide not to run again, leaving the field clear for a younger, perhaps more charismatic candidate who could win. Or Trump might not run, for whatever reason, in which case there could be a new Republican face as well – the current favourite being the re-elected Florida governor, Ron DeSantis – a younger, slightly less divisive version of Trump. These are a lot of variables for any junior ally, such as the UK, to handle over the next two years.

Last, but perhaps not least, there is what might be called the “Rishi factor”. Given that he has lived and worked in the US, Rishi Sunak should have a head start in establishing good relations with Washington. He is already said to have secured a deal for the supply of LNG this winter, during a meeting at the Cop27 summit in Egypt.

But there might also be room for a little caution. Not only is Sunak’s United States – the West Coast – very different from Biden’s northeast, but his ties with the US (including his California beach home and his erstwhile green card) became liabilities during the leadership election. A prime minister must always consider the domestic dimension – and the possible perception of divided loyalty is something he may still have to bear in mind.

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