Is this the start of a Tory exodus from Westminster?
Even a spell on reality TV looks more appealing than being swept away in a Labour landslide, writes Sean O’Grady
What is one to make of the impending voluntary departure of two comparatively young bright Conservative backbenchers? Chloe Smith, an experienced former minister, and William Wragg, deputy chair of the 1922 Committee and chair of a Commons select committee, have both announced they will not be standing as Conservative candidates of their respective seats
at the next general election. There may be more in the coming weeks, as the Conservatives have set a 5 December deadline for sitting MPs to put themselves forward for re-election.
Both may have personal factors in their decisions, but where they stand in their political careers is also instructive. Smith rose to a cabinet position, as secretary of state for work and pensions, but her tenure ended after around 50 days when she followed her ally, sponsor and fellow East Anglian MP Liz Truss into an early return to the backbenches. She is 40 this year and has been MP for Norwich North since seizing it in a 2009 by-election.
Wragg might also have expected ministerial preferment but was an outstanding critic of Boris Johnson and for that and perhaps other reasons has been overlooked by the whips. He is a boyish 34 years of age, and has been in parliament only since 2015, as MP for Hazel Grove.
Both could try and fight their seats at the next election, but both are vulnerable in a bad year for the Tories, and the next general election looks grim even for Conservatives in much safer seats. Smith faces a strong challenge from Labour – indeed, she almost lost at the height of Corbynmania in 2017. Wragg’s seat was long held by the Liberal Democrats’ Andrew Stunell (1997 to 2015) and thus vulnerable to even a modest Lib Dem revival.
Even if they held their seats, both would probably spend more of their prime years on the opposition benches, an especially unrewarding experience after a crushing defeat
Even if they somehow held their seats – or went on a “chicken run” for a safer berth as some MPs did before the 1997 near wipeout – both would probably spend more of their prime years on the opposition benches, an especially unrewarding experience after a crushing defeat. All younger Tory MPs in marginal seats who harbour any kind of ambition will be thinking about their futures. For example, Dominic Raab – 48 and easy prey for the Lib Dems in Esher and Walton – must be wondering whether he’d be better off as a backbencher nursing his constituency or milking the cabinet job for as long as he can keep it.
There are many others who might well have reached similar conclusions about their futures, albeit for different reasons. Matt Hancock, for example, has already been disowned by his local party, and had the Tory whip removed. Despite whatever hopes he might have clung to for rehabilitation under Rishi Sunak, it was not to be. The 44-year-old would probably still be secure in his Suffolk constituency had he not decided to go into showbusiness and effectively abandon his political career.
Boundary changes can also add to an incumbent MP’s woes, and especially if they’re going through a bad patch for other reasons. Gavin Williamson, who has suffered some more reputational damage lately, holds the unwelcome distinction of having been removed from government by three different prime ministers (May in 2019, Johnson in 2021, and Sunak in 2022). His ultrasafe seat of South Staffordshire is scheduled to disappear at the next election and he will have to compete with other, possibly more popular, candidates for a replacement seat. Or he may decide, at 46, to pursue other channels for his talents.
The prospect of a career in opposition for even one term of office is grim, but if Labour managed to win a landslide, with the Lib Dems and SNP grabbing a few more Tory seats, then it could easily take two or more electoral cycles for the Conservatives to recover. If they run true to recent form, they’ll also become engaged in a renewed bout of civil war. There could soon be a stampede on the way to the recruitment consultants and the
headhunters – and indeed TV reality shows. Gavin on Strictly? Chloe on Britain’s Got Talent? It beats opposition politics.
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