If Johnson can bluff his way out of the Partygate inquiry his fortunes might reverse
Boris Johnson is having a momentous few days. He has just been re-selected as the prospective Conservative parliamentary candidate for Uxbridge and South Ruislip, which he has represented since 2015. Less of a formality will be his appearance before the House of Commons Committee of Privileges on Wednesday, where he will be answering questions
about whether he lied to parliament. He’s also got a few books and some lucrative speeches to write, and of course a young family to attend to with his customary solicitude. Recent controversies on economic policy, taxation, Ukraine, Gary Lineker and the Northern Ireland protocol have drawn surprisingly little comment from the usually voluble ex-premier.
Will Boris Johnson be MP for Uxbridge and South Ruislip in the next parliament?
Not necessarily. There are still rumours that Johnson might skip Uxbridge, where he faces near-certain defeat to Labour, and get on the “chicken run” to a safer seat. His old constituency of Henley (he was MP there from 2001 to 2008) has been mentioned, as has Derby Dale and Mid-Bedfordshire, where his devoted friend Nadine Dorries has said she is standing down.
If Johnson does stay in Uxbridge, he faces a substantial Labour challenge. His majority of 7,210 is vulnerable to a 7.5 per cent swing to Labour – very large by historical standards but quite playable given the national polls. He might, perversely, enjoy the pyrotechnics of a fight to the death against a socialist but it would leave him out of parliament and unable to make any comeback as leader of the opposition in the event of a Tory defeat.
A more immediate obstacle to his continuing parliamentary career comes if the Commons Privileges Committee issues a sufficiently severe sanction that he faces a by-election.
What is his appearance before the Privileges Committee bring?
Not much upside, for Johnson, the government or the Conservatives. Even if it went comparatively well, it will remain a dismal reminder to voters of their betrayal by Johnson and his allies during lockdowns – hypocrisy and “one rule for them”. Once again, Rishi Sunak will be overshadowed by the circus entertainment laid on by his predecessor. The Johnson fan base will once applaud his chutzpah and showmanship. Everyone else may groan.
The committee – led by Harriet Harman, a Labour MP for more than four decades – will be a sober affair and Johnson’s usual bluff and bluster won’t be sufficient to avoid some serious damage to what’s left of his reputation. In due course, the committee probably will censure Johnson, the first time this has happened to a premier, and recommend to the House of Commons that he is suspended for at least ten days. It’s unlikely Sunak will attempt any rescue mission to get the penalty reduced; after all, the last time Johnson tried that idea on behalf of Owen Paterson it ended in disaster.
The threshold for triggering a potential by-election is “at least 10 sitting days, or at least 14 days if sitting days are not specified”.
Will there be a by-election in Uxbridge?
Very likely. A two-week suspension for Johnson would mean a recall petition demanding a by-election is opened up, and if 10 per cent of the electorate (roughly 7,200 registered voters) signs up then a by-election is on. Johnson is permitted to stand; indeed, given that he’s just been selected as a candidate and Sunak isn’t strong enough to get him ousted, he would almost certainly be the official Conservative candidate and further unwelcome distraction from Sunak’s attempts to move on.
What if he loses?
Strangely, this may be to his long-term advantage. Having been rejected by the voters of Uxbridge and South Ruislip, liberated Johnson would be entitled to seek a new constituency. Many in the Tory grassroots still adore him, so he might easily have his pick of the safest of the safe constituencies. A year out of parliament could be put to good use in building a war chest for a future leadership campaign, and he’d have little problem keeping his profile high.
Returning as MP for, say, Mid Beds, after a heavy Tory defeat would merely underline what a fantastic campaigning talent the party squandered in 2022. Once in, if the grassroots succeed in taking control of the leadership election away from MPs, Johnson stands a decent chance of making the biggest comeback since Lazarus.
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