The Jewish Chronicle

One with all the answers?

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Harvard, because of Jewish quotas that existed at the time.

The result has been that MIT has outshone Harvard as a powerhouse of economics, producing, among others, Lawrence Summers, a nephew of Samuelson, who went on to become US Treasury Secretary under Bill Clinton.

It counts Joseph Stiglitz among its other Nobel prize winners. The current Jewish chairman of the Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke is also an MIT PhD, having written the classic works on the causes of the Great Depression of the 1930s.

Over the past five years, with his extreme Keynesian views, Krugman has been regarded as something of a pariah. The political and economic world viewed high debt levels in the Western economies as the fundamenta­l cause of the slump. In austerity Britain, for instance, George Osborne and the coalition have argued that by shrinking the size of government and the deficit, enough room would be created in the economy for the private sector to expand and take up the slack.

Osborne and his crew have had some success. Britain’s internatio­nal borrowing rates are some of the lowest in the world along with Germany and the United States, and alarmist prediction­s that the jobless rate would jump to three million people have not been proven. In fact the labour market has stabilised.

But the growth promised, which flickered in 2010 and early 2011, has faded away. And without expansion, tax revenues fall, the welfare budgets increase and reducing debt becomes harder, so it is a bit like running on the spot. Thus, the government needs to find some method of opening the pathways to growth.

In Krugman’s view, the answers are self-evident. If private sector demand is shrinking, because households and companies are hording cash rather than spending, then it is up to the government to fill the gap. This is how Franklin D Roosevelt guided the US out of the Great Depression in the 1930s.

Whitehall is starting to listen. In the 1930s in Britain it was housebuild­ing that helped to bridge the gap with the government organising the production of 300,000 new homes a year. Some seven decades on and the output of the house builders is just 130,000 even though the population is growing by leaps and bounds.

Osborne and the Treasury are looking at measures to support both demand for houses, by making mortgage finance more freely available, and the supply of housing, by offering loan guarantees to builders. The government is also looking at ways of using its credit rating to speed up critical infrastruc­ture projects such as highway maintenanc­e and the Thames super sewage project, as well as improvemen­t to the rail network.

It is a start. But infrastruc­ture projects are notoriousl­y slow in delivering growth and jobs.

Neverthele­ss, the Krugman message may finally be gaining ground, even in the home of austerity economics. Alex Brummer is the City Editor of the Daily Mail and author of Britain for Sale published by Random House

 ??  ?? Iconic American economist Paul Krugman
Iconic American economist Paul Krugman

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