Peace? Gap is wide as ever
THE LAST few weeks have seen frenetic diplomatic activity related to a possible Israel-Palestinian peace process in Jerusalem, Ramallah and other cities across the Middle East.
Optimists see in this a sign of coordinated work that may finally renew the dormant diplomatic process.
Pessimists are convinced there is no guiding hand behind the scenes, that Israelis and Palestinians are simply positioning themselves for when it all goes wrong yet again and that there is also the possibility of another bout of violence in Gaza this summer.
Here is what we have seen over the last three weeks, in the wake of US President Donald Trump’s visit to the region. There have been reports that in a meeting with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, he angrily demanded the Palestinian Authority desist from incitement against Israel.
At the same time, he, or his team of advisers, have been pressuring Israel — in slightly more gentle tones — to make a major concession to the Palestinians. He asked the Israelis to change the status of part of Area C, the section of the West Bank where Israel has full jurisdiction; to Area B, where the Israel has security control and Palestinians have civil jurisdiction, giving the PA more land on which it can build.
Other signs of a renewed diplomatic impetus have been the reports that the Trump administration has dustedoff a plan, prepared three years ago during the Obama era, for laying the security foundations for a two-state deal. Israel has already rejected the plan, even though senior Israeli officers were involved in its preparation. Now that it is being proposed by the new administration, however, it will be more difficult to oppose.
At the same time, Mr Trump has signed a six-month waiver on moving the US Embassy to Jerusalem, and advisers to President Abbas have indicated he will be willing to return to direct negotiations without an official freeze on settlement building. The Netanyahu government has authorised some building but in quantities and locations far more limited than the settler leaders have been demanding.
The noises may be encouraging but there are also some big question marks. For a start, right now Mr Abbas seems much more interested in pursuing his programme of pressuring Hamas in Gaza — he has cut funds for salaries and electricity — than engaging with Israel.
This has coincided with the Saudiled campaign against Qatar, part of which is aimed at cutting off another source of funding for Hamas in Gaza. A leading Saudi paper last week even wrote: “Hamas betrayed the Palestinians and puts a solution to the Palestinian problem in danger. The group digs tunnels under schools, houses and hospitals, endangering residents’ lives and using them as human shields.”
Israel is officially in favour of any pressure on Hamas but at the same time fearful that it could provoke the movement’s military leadership in Gaza to reach the conclusion that it has little to lose and launch tunnel and missile attacks on Israel. Any peace talks would be out of the question in such a situation.
The problem is that, so far, it is all talk. No real moves have been made on either side. The Americans do not even seem well informed about the situation on the ground. A statement by US State Secretary Rex Tillerson that the PA was stopping benefits for imprisoned terrorists was met with incredulity by both Palestinians and Israelis.
No dates have been announced for a resumption of talks and it is hard to escape the impression that both sides are simply planning their alibis for an inevitable failure.