Divided factions in scramble for influence and candidates
members. The remaining Jewish Home MKs now face both a leadership primary and the dilemma of whether to link up with controversial far-right groups to try and attract more voters.
With Likud well ahead in the polls with around thirty projected seats, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has taken to responding to any new centrist party or split among his challengers with the same refrain: “I don’t interfere in the division of seats on the left.”
He is reprising his strategy from the 2015 election of trying to taint any challengers as serving the “weak and treacherous” left.
But his biggest worry is the threat of an announcement by the attorney-general, before election day, of his intention to indict the prime minister on corruption charges. Such an announcement would overshadow the campaign and make the race a referendum on his own suitability to remain in office.
In every election there are parties that have little chance of getting into the Knesset but help spice up the campaign. One of these this time is formed by Eldad Yaniv, a former political strategist turned professional protestor against corruption, who failed in the 2013 election with his New Country party. This year he’s back with another independent party, hoping to build on the protests against Mr Netanyahu. Over the next month and a half, the parties will select their lists of candidates. A small minority — including Likud, Labour and Meretz — will hold partywide primaries. In most of the others, candidates will be chosen and accorded positions on the list by the party leader or a small committee. In United Torah Judaism and Shas, rabbinical councils will decide the candidates.
Once the parties have finalised their lists, there will be a short period before the middle of next month, when they have to present those lists to the central election commission. This will be a decisive moment for party leaders, especially those who risk not crossing the election threshold of 3.25 per cent.
The implications of a party failing to enter the next Knesset will impact not only on its members, but also on the viability of forming coalitions. In the 1992 election, more Israelis voted for right-wing and religious parties but since some of them failed to cross the threshold, Labour’s Yitzhak Rabin formed a centre-left coalition.
With so many parties running, it is inevitable that some will not make the cut and hundreds of thousands of votes will be wasted. The last-minute decisions of party leaders to join forces and maximise the power of the different blocs could determine who wins this election.