A third general election?

FOR OVER two weeks now there have been no talks — official or unofficial — between the parties to form a new government. And while Benjamin Netanyahu was expected to return his mandate to the president earlier without using up the entire four weeks at his disposal, he is now expected to go back to the president only on Thursday, at the end of the period.

There are two possible explanations for Mr Netanyahu’s change of tactics.

Some in Likud believe he never intended to return the mandate and that he used it as spin in the hope it would pressure Blue & White leader Benny Gantz to enter negotiations and agree to a Netanyahu-led unity government.

Others insist that Mr Netanyahu was indeed trying to hurry proceedings along, in the hope of bringing about a third election before his likely indictment by the attorney-general.

“As crazy as this may sound,” one Likud minister said this week. “A third consecutive election is right now the likeliest outcome.”

But Mr Netanyahu is concerned that secret talks are going on behind his back and that the moment Mr Gantz receives the mandate, he will put a minority government in place.

In such a scenario, the new government would consist of Blue & White, Labour-Gesher and the Democratic Union. While such a government would only have 44 seats in the Knesset, 17 short of a majority, it could still be sworn in with the support of other parties, such as Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beitenu, the Joint List, and even — so Mr Netanyahu fears — some rebels from within Likud.

Such a government would probably not last very long but its main purpose would be to eject Mr Netanyahu.

While there are no signs that such a government is afoot, the fear seems to be enough for Mr Netanyahu to cancel a planned visit to Japan, where he was to have attended the enthronement ceremony of the new Japanese emperor.