► Israelis take cover from Gaza rocket attacks
VTHIRTY-TWO HOURS is a long time in politics and war. This week, it was the time that elapsed between Avigdor Lieberman putting an ultimatum on the table which could have potentially spelled disaster for Benjamin Netanyahu, and the assassination of an Islamic Jihadist which put the prospect of a new Netanyahu government firmly back on the agenda.
Mr Lieberman, in his weekend interview with Channel 12 News, threatened both Mr Netanyahu and his rival Benny Gantz, saying if either refused to accept his demands and relinquish a key element of their bargaining strategy, he would support a narrow government led by the other.
It sounded even-handed but the demand made of the prime minister was more difficult. Mr Lieberman said that he must stop negotiating as the head of a bloc of right-wing and ultra-religious parties and instead represent Likud alone. For Mr Netanyahu, abandoning his steadfast allies is tantamount to political suicide.
The demand of Mr Gantz also seemed critical: he must accept the framework originally proposed by President Reuven Rivlin under which Mr Netanyahu can remain prime minister of a national-unity government, provided he commits to suspending himself if he is indicted.
So far, Mr Gantz and the entire leadership of Blue & White have refused to countenance serving under Mr Netanyahu while he faces corruption investigations but there is some leeway: Blue & White could accept the framework in principle, knowing there is little prospect of an agreement on the actual details of when a suspension would come into effect and what powers a “suspended” prime minister would retain.
After Mr Lieberman delivered his ultimatum, it seemed that the chances of a Gantz government had shot up, probably as a minority coalition of Blue & White and a couple of other parties and outside support from the Arab Joint List.
But 32 hours later, as a targeted Israeli missile obliterated the bedroom of Islamic Jihad commander Baha Abu al-Ata and another round of warfare began between Israel and Gaza, a Netanyahu government suddenly seemed much more likely.
Mr Gantz was kept involved in security briefings. The prime minister, when not directing the campaign alongside his new but most likely temporary defense minister Naftali Bennett, was using every opportunity to tar the Joint List MKs — who opposed the operation — as supporters of Palestinian “war crimes.”
On Wednesday evening, Mr Lieberman was back in the same television studio calling the Joint List “a fifth column that wants to destroy Israel from within” and “irrelevant”. He did not specifically rule out a narrow government supported by his party’s votes but it did not sound like a likely option any more.
Mr Gantz’s four-week period to form a government expires next Wednesday and the warfare with Gaza is still rumbling. So what option is likely?
In a visit on Wednesday to Sderot, Mr Gantz said that “a specific event” was not sufficient reason for his party to give up on its principles by agreeing to a unity government under Mr Netanyahu.
But in private conversations with his party colleagues, who are still adamant in their veto, he seemed to be leaning towards a deal with the prime minister. The main question now is whether he can get them to go along.